Slonim v Dinamo Minsk II prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04

Slonim 2–0 Dinamo Minsk II DINAMO MINSK II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Minsk II win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Minsk II win at 38%.
2′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Minsk II was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 36–27–38
2′KICK-OFF Slonim v Dinamo Minsk II
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Slonim
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Dinamo Minsk II win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME Slonim 0–0 Dinamo Minsk II
46′SECOND HALF Slonim 0–0 Dinamo Minsk II
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Slonim
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Dinamo Minsk II win: 38% at kick-off, 28% now
55′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 27–45–28
59′We said Dinamo Minsk II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 0–0 · 25–48–26
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Dinamo Minsk II
63′We said Dinamo Minsk II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–52–24
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Slonim
72′We said Dinamo Minsk II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–63–19
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Dinamo Minsk II
73′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 73' Dinamo Minsk II win: 38% at kick-off, 18% now
75′Slonim score on 75′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 83–15–2
75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Slonim 1–0 Dinamo Minsk II
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Dinamo Minsk II win: 38% at kick-off, 2% now
75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Slonim win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
76′We said Dinamo Minsk II at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–0 · 84–14–2
80′Slonim find the net on 80′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Slonim 2–0 Dinamo Minsk II
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Slonim
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Dinamo Minsk II
FTFULL TIME Slonim 2–0 Dinamo Minsk II
FTSlonim 2–0 Dinamo Minsk II · Dinamo Minsk II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Dinamo Minsk II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Slonim 36%, draw 26%, Dinamo Minsk II 38%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Slonim v Dinamo Minsk IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Slonim win36%

Draw26%

Dinamo Minsk II win38%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueYunost Stadium

Line-ups

Slonim

Dinamo Minsk II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slonim

Dinamo Minsk II

8Days since last match30

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 18 Sept · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
11	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Slonim

Formation not confirmed

44 A. Agapov

99 M. Kalinchenko

66 K. Krutorozhkin

55 A. Chuyko

24 V. Shcherbakov

23 M. Klunok

20 A. Glotko

14 M. Tkatsevich

12 I. Semin

11 A. Starovoytov

8 R. Mushulov

Coach · Sergey Podretskiy

Substitutes

1 · D. Miskevich

16 · D. Say

9 · S. Gomonov

10 · P. Alenchev

15 · V. Berg

17 · A. Sokol

18 · A. Zhukovskiy

19 · A. Konev

34 · T. Adamchik

77 · A. Bulychev

Dinamo Minsk II

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Aleksandrovich

25 U. Varonin

23 N. Raptunovich

21 S. Zhigimont

18 G. Drozd

17 A. Penkrat

16 G. Sereda

10 S. Zhivushko

9 A. Lutskovich

7 M. Aleksandrov

2 M. Dubatovka

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Barushnou

3 · M. Nizovtsev

6 · R. Zdukhov

13 · N. Sanko

15 · I. Bachauskas

20 · T. Gudach

22 · N. Kolesnikovich

Our number · dinamo minsk ii winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Dinamo Minsk II a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slonim v Dinamo Minsk II~~1.34 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D2 L0 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 50 v 35~~5 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slonim win	36%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Dinamo Minsk II win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Slonim or draw	62%	–	–
Slonim clean sheet	26%	–	–
Dinamo Minsk II clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 7.4 8.8 6.3 3.0 1 8.5 12.3 8.1 3.8 2 5.9 7.9 5.4 2.5 3 2.7 3.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slonim down, Dinamo Minsk II across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 1. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 255 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slonim at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Minsk II away: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Slonim, 1.38 for Dinamo Minsk II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DIN 3–1 SLO · SLO 0–2 DIN · DIN 5–0 SLO · SLO 1–0 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 22 Aug

SLONIM

WDWWDW5–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

DINAMO MINSK II

LWWLDW1–2 · 4–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	29	+30	63
2	Niva	29	+41	61
3	Lida	28	+9	57
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	28	−1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	29	+10	44
8	Bumprom	29	+8	41
9	Smorgon	29	0	39
10	Ostrovets FC	29	−3	36
11	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
12	Volna	28	−10	35
13	Minsk II	28	−15	30
14	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
15	Orsha	29	−25	27
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	28	−22	21