Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › 1. Division › Shakhter Soligorsk v Smorgon

Back
Belarus flag

Shakhter Soligorsk v Smorgon

Shakhter Soligorsk
4–0Full time
Smorgon

1. Division · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24
Shakhter Soligorsk 4–0 Smorgon SHAKHTER SOLIGORSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Shakhter Soligorsk win41%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.523

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 17 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Shakhter Soligorsk win at 41%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Shakhter Soligorsk 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–26–33
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Shakhter Soligorsk v Smorgon
  4. 18′🟨 YELLOW · 18' Shakhter Soligorsk
  5. 20′Shakhter Soligorsk score on 20′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–12
  6. 20′We said Shakhter Soligorsk at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–19–12
  7. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Shakhter Soligorsk 1–0 Smorgon
  8. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Shakhter Soligorsk win: 41% at kick-off, 68% now
  9. 23′19′: Y. Bara on the scoresheet for Shakhter Soligorsk, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–12
  10. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 69–20–11
  11. 31′We said Shakhter Soligorsk at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–20–10
  12. 32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Shakhter Soligorsk
  13. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Shakhter Soligorsk
  14. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Shakhter Soligorsk win: 41% at kick-off, 71% now
  15. 39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Shakhter Soligorsk
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Shakhter Soligorsk 1–0 Smorgon
  17. 46′🟨 YELLOW · 45' Shakhter Soligorsk
  18. 46′SECOND HALF Shakhter Soligorsk 1–0 Smorgon
  19. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 45+2' Smorgon
  20. 55′We said Shakhter Soligorsk at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–20–6
  21. 57′Shakhter Soligorsk find the net on 57′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–5–1
  22. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Shakhter Soligorsk 2–0 Smorgon
  23. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Shakhter Soligorsk win: 41% at kick-off, 95% now
  24. 58′We said Shakhter Soligorsk at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  25. 60′Shakhter Soligorsk ahead on 56′ through Y. Bara. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  26. 64′A goal for Shakhter Soligorsk on 64′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  27. 64′We said Shakhter Soligorsk at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  28. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Shakhter Soligorsk 3–0 Smorgon
  29. 65′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  30. 66′N. Shaula scores for Shakhter Soligorsk on 63′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  31. 70′Shakhter Soligorsk score on 70′ to make it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  32. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Shakhter Soligorsk 4–0 Smorgon
  33. 71′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  34. 74′69′: A. Kurbachev on the scoresheet for Shakhter Soligorsk, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
  35. FTFULL TIME Shakhter Soligorsk 4–0 Smorgon
  36. FTShakhter Soligorsk 4–0 Smorgon · Shakhter Soligorsk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Shakhter Soligorsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Shakhter Soligorsk 41%, draw 26%, Smorgon 33%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Shakhter Soligorsk v SmorgonBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Shakhter Soligorsk win41%
Draw26%
Smorgon win33%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:30

RoundMatchday 30

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Shakhter Soligorsk

Smorgon

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7Shakhter Soligorsk29+1044
9Smorgon29039

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · shakhter soligorsk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
41% The market–
Us41%

We make Shakhter Soligorsk a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Shakhter Soligorsk v Smorgon1.49 – 1.31
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 12 SeptW4 D2 L0 · W5 D0 L1
Table places · points 44 v 397 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Shakhter Soligorsk win41%––
Draw26%––
Smorgon win33%––
Over 2.5 goals53%––
Both teams to score56%––
Over 1.5 goals77%––
Over 3.5 goals31%––
Shakhter Soligorsk or draw67%––
Shakhter Soligorsk clean sheet28%––
Smorgon clean sheet23%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 6.9 7.8 5.3 2.3 1 8.9 12.0 7.5 3.3 2 6.8 8.5 5.5 2.5 3 3.4 4.3 2.8 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Shakhter Soligorsk down, Smorgon across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.54 of 7
Both scored3 of 7
Last meetingsSMO 2–0 SHA · SMO 2–0 SHA · SHA 2–2 SMO · SHA 2–0 SMO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 12 Sept

SHAKHTER SOLIGORSK

WWWDWD2–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–1 · 1–1

SMORGON

WWLWWW2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Slutsk29+3063
2Niva29+4161
3Lida29+1060
4FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk29+2656
5Slonim29+2053
6Molodechno-DYuSSh 428−145
7Shakhter Soligorsk29+1044
8Bumprom29+841
9Smorgon29039
10Ostrovets FC30−139
11Dinamo Minsk II27+135
12Volna29−1335
13Minsk II29−1233
14Uni Minsk28−829
15Orsha29−2527
16Osipovichy29−3723
17BATE II28−2622
18Gomel II29−2321

The competition's standings before kick-off.