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Shakhter Soligorsk v Bumprom

Shakhter Soligorsk

3–1Full time

Bumprom

1. Division · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Shakhter Soligorsk 3–1 Bumprom BUMPROM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bumprom win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.621

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bumprom win at 41%.
1′KICK-OFF Shakhter Soligorsk v Bumprom
3′Little has changed for our model: Bumprom 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 36–23–41
14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Shakhter Soligorsk 1–0 Bumprom
23′Shakhter Soligorsk ahead on 14′ through I. Sen. 1–0. 1–0 · 61–21–17
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Bumprom win: 41% at kick-off, 17% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Shakhter Soligorsk win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Bumprom win 17%)
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Bumprom
43′We said Bumprom at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–0 · 65–22–13
45′HALF-TIME Shakhter Soligorsk 1–0 Bumprom
46′SECOND HALF Shakhter Soligorsk 1–0 Bumprom
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Bumprom win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Shakhter Soligorsk 2–0 Bumprom
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Shakhter Soligorsk 2–1 Bumprom
71′68′ and it is 2–1: M. Kazimir on the scoresheet for Bumprom. 2–1 · 77–19–4
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Shakhter Soligorsk
90′Shakhter Soligorsk find the net on 90′. 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 92' Shakhter Soligorsk 3–1 Bumprom
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Bumprom win: 41% at kick-off, 0% now
FTFULL TIME Shakhter Soligorsk 3–1 Bumprom
FTShakhter Soligorsk 3–1 Bumprom · Bumprom win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Shakhter Soligorsk win36%

Draw23%

Bumprom win41%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Shakhter Soligorsk

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Dostanko

3 A. Chizh

4 N. Korshun

5 I. Udodov

7 I. Sen

11 D. Kutsepalov

12 K. Novik

15 D. Lozhachnik

21 V. Syrisko

80 K. Yankovskiy

99 N. Shaula

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · V. Yukhnovich

2 · A. Perepechko

6 · V. Korolik

8 · A. Boldyrev

14 · A. Bystrov

22 · A. Chakur

Bumprom

Formation not confirmed

16 V. Yarukov

4 S. Kruzhilin

5 D. Kaplunov

8 I. Zhestkin

9 K. Sidorenko

20 M. Kazimir

21 N. Ovsyanik

59 A. Zhevnerenko

72 A. Fazylov

91 A. Miroevskiy

95 M. Tychko

Coach · –

Substitutes

93 · E. Isachenko

2 · G. Kutkovich

10 · V. Drapeza

11 · V. Dubrovskiy

29 · M. Samotoy

47 · A. Kabyshev

66 · S. Absamadov

77 · D. Latykhov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Shakhter Soligorsk

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Dostanko

3 A. Chizh

4 N. Korshun

5 I. Udodov

7 I. Sen

11 D. Kutsepalov

12 K. Novik

15 D. Lozhachnik

21 V. Syrisko

80 K. Yankovskiy

99 N. Shaula

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · V. Yukhnovich

2 · A. Perepechko

6 · V. Korolik

8 · A. Boldyrev

14 · A. Bystrov

22 · A. Chakur

Bumprom

Formation not confirmed

16 V. Yarukov

4 S. Kruzhilin

5 D. Kaplunov

8 I. Zhestkin

9 K. Sidorenko

20 M. Kazimir

21 N. Ovsyanik

59 A. Zhevnerenko

72 A. Fazylov

91 A. Miroevskiy

95 M. Tychko

Coach · –

Substitutes

93 · E. Isachenko

2 · G. Kutkovich

10 · V. Drapeza

11 · V. Dubrovskiy

29 · M. Samotoy

47 · A. Kabyshev

66 · S. Absamadov

77 · D. Latykhov

Our number · bumprom winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Bumprom a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Shakhter Soligorsk win	36%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Bumprom win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	67%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Shakhter Soligorsk or draw	59%	–	–
Shakhter Soligorsk clean sheet	18%	–	–
Bumprom clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.8%

0123450 3.9 5.4 5.1 3.0 1 5.1 9.8 8.1 4.8 2.2 2 4.5 7.7 6.7 4.0 3 2.5 4.3 3.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Shakhter Soligorsk down, Bumprom across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,478 1. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 241 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 8.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Shakhter Soligorsk at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Bumprom away: 2.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Shakhter Soligorsk, 1.77 for Bumprom. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~8.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BUM 6–2 SHA

Form · last six in 1. Division

SHAKHTER SOLIGORSK

LDWWWD1–2 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

BUMPROM

LLLWDW1–4 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 3–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	27	+28	57
2	Niva	27	+36	55
3	Lida	27	+8	54
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	27	+25	53
5	Slonim	27	+17	47
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	26	+5	45
7	Bumprom	27	+11	41
8	Shakhter Soligorsk	27	+8	40
9	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
10	Ostrovets FC	27	−2	35
11	Volna	27	−10	34
12	Smorgon	27	−3	33
13	Minsk II	27	−13	30
14	Orsha	27	−23	27
15	Uni Minsk	26	−10	26
16	BATE II	27	−25	22
17	Gomel II	27	−19	21
18	Osipovichy	27	−38	19