Ostrovets FC v Shakhter Soligorsk prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35

Ostrovets FC 1–1 Shakhter Soligorsk SHAKHTER SOLIGORSK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Shakhter Soligorsk win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.874

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Shakhter Soligorsk just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Ostrovets FC 36%, draw 24%, Shakhter Soligorsk 40%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Ostrovets FC v Shakhter SoligorskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Ostrovets FC win36%

Draw24%

Shakhter Soligorsk win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueCity Stadium

Line-ups

Ostrovets FC

Shakhter Soligorsk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ostrovets FC

Shakhter Soligorsk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	28	+10	43
11	Ostrovets FC	28	−3	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Ostrovets FC

Formation not confirmed

82 V. Drozd

7 I. Zaytsev

10 K. Goncharik

11 M. Boychenko

14 I. Mokshin

17 R. Medvedev

18 R. Davyskiba

19 E. Mikhey

21 A. Kilyimanov

44 G. Krivtsov

81 G. Skripnik

Coach · Ivan Migal

Substitutes

1 · I. Frolov

4 · D. Prudnik

13 · A. Snetkov

15 · T. Statkevich

20 · G. Zhernosek

Shakhter Soligorsk

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Dostanko

3 A. Chizh

5 I. Udodov

7 I. Sen

10 Y. Bara

11 D. Kutsepalov

14 A. Bystrov

15 D. Lozhachnik

21 V. Syrisko

80 K. Yankovskiy

99 N. Shaula

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · V. Yukhnovich

2 · A. Perepechko

4 · N. Korshun

8 · A. Bystrou

19 · A. Chernous

Our number · shakhter soligorsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Shakhter Soligorsk a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ostrovets FC v Shakhter Soligorsk~~1.58 – 1.67

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 35 v 43~~11 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ostrovets FC win	36%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Shakhter Soligorsk win	40%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Ostrovets FC or draw	60%	–	–
Ostrovets FC clean sheet	19%	–	–
Shakhter Soligorsk clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.5 6.3 5.4 3.1 1 5.9 10.4 8.3 4.7 2.0 2 4.9 7.8 6.5 3.6 3 2.6 4.2 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ostrovets FC down, Shakhter Soligorsk across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,487 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 250 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ostrovets FC at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Shakhter Soligorsk away: 1.50 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Ostrovets FC, 1.67 for Shakhter Soligorsk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SHA 4–1 OST · OST 1–2 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

OSTROVETS FC

WWLDDL3–2 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

SHAKHTER SOLIGORSK

DWWWDW2–2 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	29	+30	63
2	Niva	28	+39	58
3	Lida	28	+9	57
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	28	+29	56
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	27	+1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	28	+10	43
8	Bumprom	28	+9	41
9	Smorgon	28	−1	36
10	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
11	Ostrovets FC	28	−3	35
12	Volna	28	−10	35
13	Minsk II	28	−15	30
14	Orsha	28	−24	27
15	Uni Minsk	27	−11	26
16	BATE II	28	−26	22
17	Gomel II	28	−22	21
18	Osipovichy	28	−38	20