Osipovichy v Gomel II prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OsipovichyDrawGomel II

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Osipovichy 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Osipovichy just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Osipovichy 40%, draw 22%, Gomel II 37%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Osipovichy v Gomel IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Osipovichy win40%

Draw22%

Gomel II win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueYunost Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Osipovichy

Gomel II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
18	Gomel II	29	−23	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · osipovichy winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Osipovichy a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Osipovichy v Gomel II~~1.80 – 1.72

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W0 D0 L6

~~Table places · points 23 v 21~~16 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Osipovichy win	40%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Gomel II win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	68%	–	–
Both teams to score	68%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Osipovichy or draw	63%	–	–
Osipovichy clean sheet	19%	–	–
Gomel II clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.5 5.0 4.5 2.6 1 5.2 9.3 7.7 4.4 2 4.8 8.0 6.8 3.9 3 2.9 4.8 4.1 2.3 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Osipovichy down, Gomel II across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Osipovichy at home: 1.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Gomel II away: 1.50 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.80 goals for Osipovichy, 1.72 for Gomel II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~GOM 5–2 OSI · OSI 1–2 GOM · GOM 3–2 OSI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 12 Sept

OSIPOVICHY

LDDLDW1–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 3–2

GOMEL II

LLLLLL1–3 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 0–3 · 2–5 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	30	+32	66
2	Lida	30	+11	63
3	Niva	29	+41	61
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	30	+18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	+14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	−2	45
8	Bumprom	30	+6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	−1	39
10	Smorgon	30	−4	39
11	Volna	30	−11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	+1	35
13	Minsk II	30	−16	33
14	Orsha	30	−21	30
15	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	29	−23	21