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Model 1.2

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Orsha v Osipovichy

Orsha
2–3Full time
Osipovichy

1. Division · SAT 17 OCT · Central City Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Orsha 2–3 Osipovichy ORSHA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Orsha win45%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.738

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 28 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Orsha win at 45%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Orsha was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 45% now. 0–0 · 45–24–31
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Orsha v Osipovichy
  4. 38′A goal for Osipovichy on 38′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 15–24–61
  5. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Orsha 0–1 Osipovichy
  6. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Orsha win: 45% at kick-off, 15% now
  7. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Osipovichy win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Orsha win 15%)
  8. 39′We said Orsha at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–24–61
  9. 39′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 0–1 · 15–24–61
  10. 40′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' Osipovichy
  11. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Orsha win: 45% at kick-off, 38% now
  12. 40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Orsha win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Osipovichy win 28%)
  13. 41′A goal for Osipovichy on 41′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  14. 41′We said Orsha at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
  15. 41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Orsha 0–1 Osipovichy
  16. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Orsha win: 45% at kick-off, 14% now
  17. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Osipovichy win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Orsha win 14%)
  18. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Osipovichy
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Orsha 0–1 Osipovichy
  20. 46′T. Kovardaev scores for Osipovichy on 40′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–63
  21. 47′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Orsha
  22. 47′SECOND HALF Orsha 0–1 Osipovichy
  23. 50′Orsha score on 50′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 35–38–26
  24. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Osipovichy
  25. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Orsha 1–1 Osipovichy
  26. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Orsha win: 45% at kick-off, 35% now
  27. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Osipovichy win 26%)
  28. 55′Osipovichy find the net on 55′. 1–2. 1–2 · 10–24–67
  29. 55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Orsha 1–2 Osipovichy
  30. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Orsha win: 45% at kick-off, 10% now
  31. 55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Osipovichy win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
  32. 56′We said Orsha at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  33. 57′A goal for Osipovichy on 57′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  34. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Orsha 1–3 Osipovichy
  35. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Orsha win: 45% at kick-off, 2% now
  36. 58′We said Orsha at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 2%. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  37. 58′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 2–7–91
  38. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Osipovichy
  39. 70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Osipovichy
  40. 92′Orsha score on 90′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–4–96
  41. 92′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–4–96
  42. 92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Orsha 2–3 Osipovichy
  43. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Orsha
  44. FTFULL TIME Orsha 2–3 Osipovichy
  45. FTOrsha 2–3 Osipovichy · Orsha win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Orsha are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orsha 45%, draw 24%, Osipovichy 31%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Orsha v OsipovichyBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Orsha win45%
Draw24%
Osipovichy win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueCentral City Stadium

Line-ups

Orsha

Osipovichy

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orsha

Osipovichy

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
14Orsha28−2427
18Osipovichy28−3820

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Orsha

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Volodkov

3 N. Bykov

7 N. Bobchenok

8 I. Berezun

9 D. Tikhomirov

10 A. Alexandrovich

11 D. Stain

13 D. Strebtsov

18 N. Volchenko

22 E. Kudinov

77 G. Zheleznikov

Coach · –

Substitutes

52 · R. Kravchenko

14 · A. Dambrovsky

19 · V. Kostyukovich

69 · S. Bulakhov

88 · D. Rudenok

98 · A. Romanov

Osipovichy

Formation not confirmed

33 E. Yaroshevich

2 D. Ssorin

6 G. Mishin

7 M. Azarov

8 I. Tishurov

11 T. Kovardaev

15 O. Petrovsky

19 A. Zimin

23 A. Kukhotskovolets

27 I. Alekseev

29 M. Vasilkevich

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Makarov

16 · R. Gurinovich

3 · V. Grekovich

9 · D. Kulikov

14 · T. Minets

17 · A. Emeljanov

18 · A. Khadzhiev

20 · D. Pyshnik

21 · E. Elezarenko

22 · A. Emeljanov

Our number · orsha winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
45% The market–
Us45%

We make Orsha a 45% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Orsha v Osipovichy1.75 – 1.41
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 SeptW0 D2 L4 · W0 D3 L3
Table places · points 27 v 2014 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Orsha win45%––
Draw24%––
Osipovichy win31%––
Over 2.5 goals61%––
Both teams to score62%––
Over 1.5 goals82%––
Over 3.5 goals39%––
Orsha or draw69%––
Orsha clean sheet25%––
Osipovichy clean sheet18%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%
0123450 5.0 5.8 4.3 2.0 1 7.2 10.7 7.2 3.4 2 6.5 8.9 6.2 2.9 3 3.8 5.2 3.6 4 2.3 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Orsha down, Osipovichy across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.57
Over 2.56 of 7
Both scored5 of 7
Last meetingsOSI 2–1 ORS · ORS 2–2 OSI · OSI 4–2 ORS · ORS 3–0 OSI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

ORSHA

LDLLDL2–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 0–0 · 0–1

OSIPOVICHY

LLDDLD1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 3–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Slutsk29+3063
2Niva28+3958
3Lida28+957
4FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk28+2956
5Slonim28+1850
6Molodechno-DYuSSh 427+145
7Shakhter Soligorsk28+1043
8Bumprom28+941
9Smorgon28−136
10Dinamo Minsk II25+535
11Ostrovets FC28−335
12Volna28−1035
13Minsk II28−1530
14Orsha28−2427
15Uni Minsk27−1126
16BATE II28−2622
17Gomel II28−2221
18Osipovichy28−3820

The competition's standings before kick-off.