Orsha v Bumprom prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

OrshaDrawBumprom

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bumprom 55%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bumprom are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Orsha 24%, draw 22%, Bumprom 55%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Orsha v BumpromBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Orsha win24%

Draw22%

Bumprom win55%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 31

VenueCentral City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Orsha

Bumprom

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bumprom	30	+6	41
14	Orsha	30	−21	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bumprom winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

55% The market–

Us55%

We make Bumprom a 55% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Orsha v Bumprom~~1.27 – 2.03

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 41~~14 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Orsha win	24%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Bumprom win	55%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	62%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	42%	–	–
Orsha or draw	45%	–	–
Orsha clean sheet	14%	–	–
Bumprom clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.2 7.4 7.6 5.1 2.7 1 4.5 9.6 9.3 6.3 3.3 2 3.0 5.9 5.9 4.0 2.1 3 2.5 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Orsha down, Bumprom across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.86 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Orsha at home: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Bumprom away: 1.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Orsha, 2.03 for Bumprom. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.86

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BUM 1–3 ORS · BUM 4–0 ORS · ORS 0–3 BUM · BUM 3–4 ORS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 19 Sept

ORSHA

LLDLLW0–3 · 1–5 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 5–1

BUMPROM

WDWLLL4–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	30	+32	66
2	Lida	30	+11	63
3	Niva	29	+41	61
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	30	+18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	+14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	−2	45
8	Bumprom	30	+6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	−1	39
10	Smorgon	30	−4	39
11	Volna	30	−11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	+1	35
13	Minsk II	30	−16	33
14	Orsha	30	−21	30
15	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	29	−23	21