Niva v Uni Minsk prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NivaDrawUni Minsk

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 11:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Niva 66%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Niva are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Niva 66%, draw 19%, Uni Minsk 16%. Over 2.5 goals 67%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Niva v Uni MinskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Niva win66%

Draw19%

Uni Minsk win16%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueCity Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Niva

Uni Minsk

8Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Niva	29	+41	61
15	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · niva winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

66% The market–

Us66%

We make Niva a 66% chance to win. The model expects 2.4–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Niva v Uni Minsk~~2.40 – 1.08

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 61 v 29~~3 v 15

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Niva win	66%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Uni Minsk win	16%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	67%	–	–
Both teams to score	59%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	46%	–	–
Niva or draw	84%	–	–
Niva clean sheet	35%	–	–
Uni Minsk clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.3%

0123450 3.6 3.2 1 7.4 8.2 4.3 2 8.9 9.3 5.0 3 7.0 7.3 3.9 4 4.3 4.4 2.4 5 2.1 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Niva down, Uni Minsk across0–5 goals a side shown (95.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,496 1. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 259 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Niva at home: 3.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Uni Minsk away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.40 goals for Niva, 1.08 for Uni Minsk. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~UNI 1–3 NIV · NIV 2–2 UNI · UNI 0–4 NIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

NIVA

WLWDWW2–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 5–2 · 4–2

UNI MINSK

DLLDLW2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	30	+32	66
2	Lida	30	+11	63
3	Niva	29	+41	61
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	30	+18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	+14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	−2	45
8	Bumprom	30	+6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	−1	39
10	Smorgon	30	−4	39
11	Volna	30	−11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	+1	35
13	Minsk II	30	−16	33
14	Orsha	30	−21	30
15	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	29	−23	21