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Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 v Niva

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
2–4Full time
Niva

1. Division · SAT 17 OCT · Molodechno Haradzki Stadion

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–4 Niva NIVA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Niva win50%
The market said47%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.377
The market’s Brier score0.430

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay20 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Niva win at 50%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Niva 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 29–21–50
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 v Niva
  4. 9′Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 51–21–28
  5. 9′We said Niva at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–0 · 51–21–28
  6. 9′⚽ GOAL · 8' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 1–0 Niva
  7. 9′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 9' Niva win: 50% at kick-off, 28% now
  8. 9′THE CALL SWINGS · 9' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Niva win 28%)
  9. 17′A goal for Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 on 17′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 74–14–12
  10. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–0 Niva
  11. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Niva win: 50% at kick-off, 12% now
  12. 18′We said Niva at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 2–0 · 74–14–11
  13. 20′Niva score on 20′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 53–22–25
  14. 20′⚽ GOAL · 20' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–1 Niva
  15. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Niva win: 50% at kick-off, 25% now
  16. 23′We said Niva at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 2–1 · 53–22–24
  17. 26′21′: D. Fedortsov on the scoresheet for Niva, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 54–23–23
  18. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Niva
  19. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Niva win: 50% at kick-off, 20% now
  20. 38′We said Niva at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 2–1 · 57–24–19
  21. 45′HALF-TIME Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–1 Niva
  22. 46′SECOND HALF Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–1 Niva
  23. 56′Niva find the net on 56′. 2–2. 2–2 · 25–38–37
  24. 56′We said Niva at 50%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 2–2 · 25–38–37
  25. 56′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 25–38–37
  26. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–2 Niva
  27. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Niva win: 50% at kick-off, 37% now
  28. 57′A goal for Niva on 57′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 6–18–76
  29. 57′We said Niva at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 2–3 · 6–18–76
  30. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–3 Niva
  31. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Niva win: 50% at kick-off, 76% now
  32. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Niva win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win 6%)
  33. 58′5 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 6–18–76
  34. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 37' Niva · On: P. Pampukha · Off: D. Galuza
  35. 69′We said Niva at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 2–3 · 3–17–80
  36. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Niva win: 50% at kick-off, 80% now
  37. 72′Niva score on 71′ to make it 2–4. 2–4 · 0–2–97
  38. 72′We said Niva at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–4 · 0–2–97
  39. 72′⚽ GOAL · 71' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–4 Niva
  40. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Niva win: 50% at kick-off, 97% now
  41. 73′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.7 across ninety minutes. 2–4 · 0–2–97
  42. 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
  43. 77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
  44. 84′We said Niva at 50% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  45. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Niva win: 50% at kick-off, over 99% now
  46. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+5' Niva
  47. FTFULL TIME Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–4 Niva
  48. FTMolodechno-DYuSSh 4 2–4 Niva · Niva win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Niva are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 29%, draw 21%, Niva 50%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 68%.

The AI’s read on Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 v NivaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win29%
Draw21%
Niva win50%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 11:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueMolodechno Haradzki Stadion

Line-ups

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Niva

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Niva

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Niva28+3958
6Molodechno-DYuSSh 427+145

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Tretyak

5 V. Rusakov

10 D. Volkovets

12 D. Gruzhevskiy

15 A. Alshanik

17 V. Belashevich

18 A. Petrusevich

20 P. Klenye

37 A. Shlenkin

49 I. Chernykh

55 E. Imeryakov

Coach · Yuri Puntus

Substitutes

71 · O. Diva

7 · B. Levchenko

9 · E. Shmarov

11 · A. Voronovich

22 · S. Atrashkevich

29 · T. Dubovik

77 · A. Yushkevich

78 · F. Solovey

88 · A. Tsybulskiy

91 · T. Mamedov

Niva

Formation not confirmed

35 D. Kashtelyan

7 D. Galuza

8 D. Sibilev

9 A. Kuratnik

10 V. Dybin

18 V. Shcherbo

21 N. Leshkevich

23 D. Fedortsov

41 A. Tkhagalegov

62 M. Gordeychuk

88 R. Kozel

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Dovnar

3 · M. Druchik

4 · V. Milyutin

15 · I. Monich

20 · A. Martysevich

29 · P. Pampukha

47 · V. Skomarovskiy

69 · E. Mashagin

77 · V. Shubovich

98 · A. Karpuk

Our number · niva winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
50% The market47%
Us50%
Market47%

We make Niva a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–2.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 v Niva1.56 – 2.12
Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 AugW3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 45 v 586 v 2
The market · Niva win47% · ours 50%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 11:12
Our probability · Niva win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win29%31%−2
Draw21%23%−2
Niva win50%47%+3
Over 2.5 goals70%65%+5
Both teams to score68%66%+2
Over 1.5 goals88%––
Over 3.5 goals50%43%+7
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 or draw50%53%−3
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 clean sheet13%––
Niva clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.6%
0123450 3.1 5.3 5.7 4.0 2.2 1 3.9 8.6 8.5 5.9 3.2 2 3.2 6.4 6.5 4.6 2.5 3 3.4 3.4 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 down, Niva across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsNIV 6–0 MOL · MOL 1–0 NIV · NIV 0–0 MOL · MOL 1–2 NIV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

MOLODECHNO-DYUSSH 4

WWDWLL1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–5

NIVA

WWLWDW4–3 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 0–0 · 5–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Slutsk29+3063
2Niva28+3958
3Lida28+957
4FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk28+2956
5Slonim28+1850
6Molodechno-DYuSSh 427+145
7Shakhter Soligorsk28+1043
8Bumprom28+941
9Smorgon28−136
10Dinamo Minsk II25+535
11Ostrovets FC28−335
12Volna28−1035
13Minsk II28−1530
14Orsha28−2427
15Uni Minsk27−1126
16BATE II28−2622
17Gomel II28−2221
18Osipovichy28−3820

The competition's standings before kick-off.