Minsk II v Smorgon prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Minsk II 0–2 Smorgon MINSK II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Minsk II win~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.614

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Minsk II win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Minsk II was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–27–37
1′KICK-OFF Minsk II v Smorgon
9′Much as we predicted: Minsk II was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 36–28–36
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Minsk II
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Smorgon
45′HALF-TIME Minsk II 0–0 Smorgon
46′SECOND HALF Minsk II 0–0 Smorgon
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Smorgon
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Minsk II
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Minsk II 0–1 Smorgon
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Minsk II
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Minsk II 0–2 Smorgon
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Minsk II
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Minsk II
FTFULL TIME Minsk II 0–2 Smorgon
FTMinsk II 0–2 Smorgon · Minsk II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Minsk II win37%

Draw27%

Smorgon win36%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 16:00

VenueStadium FC Minsk

Line-ups

Minsk II

Smorgon

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Minsk II

Smorgon

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Smorgon	27	−3	33
13	Minsk II	27	−13	30

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Minsk II

Formation not confirmed

16 M. Gerashchenko

2 V. Dikhtievskiy

3 D. Gorkovsky

4 P. Sheremet

5 V. Zholudov

8 S. Matusevich

9 I. Bondarenko

10 I. Volchok

14 V. Ganchuk

17 E. Kindruk

18 D. Morozov

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · M. Sukharenko

6 · R. Sitnikov

7 · G. Bulatskiy

11 · N. Bulyga

12 · E. Egorov

13 · D. Denisenko

15 · A. Khomenok

20 · V. Khachaturian

21 · V. Korotonozhkin

22 · I. Porshnev

Smorgon

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Azarko

3 M. Autko

17 M. Dukso

18 R. Gribovskiy

27 A. Tishko

30 B. Fartuna

33 A. Poznyak

47 R. Kukhley

52 E. Mychelkin

77 I. Bogdanovich

99 G. Malashenko

Coach · Sergey Dorokhovich

Substitutes

16 · D. Perov

19 · A. Velesyuk

7 · J. Nsangou

11 · I. Sivkov

22 · V. Galko

23 · A. Stankevich

25 · Y. Yarotskiy

59 · V. Kabachevskiy

Our number · minsk ii winPublished 11 Oct 16:05

37% The market–

Us37%

We make Minsk II a 37% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Minsk II win	37%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Smorgon win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	73%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Minsk II or draw	64%	–	–
Minsk II clean sheet	28%	–	–
Smorgon clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 8.3 9.2 6.3 2.8 1 9.2 12.7 7.9 3.5 2 6.3 7.9 5.1 2.3 3 2.8 3.5 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Minsk II down, Smorgon across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,484 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 247 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Minsk II at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Smorgon away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Minsk II, 1.30 for Smorgon. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SMO 1–0 MIN

Form · last six in 1. Division

MINSK II

LLLDLL1–2 · 3–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2

SMORGON

LDWWLW2–3 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	28	+29	60
2	Niva	28	+39	58
3	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	28	+29	56
4	Lida	27	+8	54
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	27	+1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	28	+10	43
8	Bumprom	28	+9	41
9	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
10	Ostrovets FC	28	−3	35
11	Volna	28	−10	35
12	Smorgon	27	−3	33
13	Minsk II	27	−13	30
14	Orsha	27	−23	27
15	Uni Minsk	27	−11	26
16	BATE II	27	−25	22
17	Gomel II	28	−22	21
18	Osipovichy	28	−38	20