Lida v Orsha prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 15:46

Lida 1–0 Orsha LIDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lida win~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.153

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lida win at 68%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lida 68% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 69–17–14
1′KICK-OFF Lida v Orsha
3′Little has changed for our model: Lida 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 68–17–14
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Lida 1–0 Orsha
44′39′ and it is 1–0: A. Mazurich on the scoresheet for Lida. 1–0 · 84–12–4
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Lida win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Lida win: 68% at kick-off, 63% now
45′39′ and it is 1–0: A. Mazurich on the scoresheet for Lida. 1–0 · 84–12–4
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Lida
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Lida win: 68% at kick-off, 63% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Lida win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
45′HALF-TIME Lida 1–0 Orsha
46′SECOND HALF Lida 1–0 Orsha
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Lida win: 68% at kick-off, 84% now
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Orsha
82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Orsha
FTFULL TIME Lida 1–0 Orsha
FTLida 1–0 Orsha · Lida win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Lida win68%

Draw18%

Orsha win14%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 13:00

VenueYunost Stadium

Line-ups

Lida

Orsha

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Lida

Orsha

9Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Lida	27	+8	54
14	Orsha	27	−23	27

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Lida

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Vasilyuchek

3 A. Legchilin

5 I. Tymonyuk

6 M. Katsynel

7 A. Drozdovich

9 I. Kontsevoy

10 A. Chernodarov

13 E. Karpovich

20 A. Mazurich

23 M. Zhestarev

27 D. Vashkevich

Coach · Aleksey Dobrovolskiy

Substitutes

16 · A. Yanushko

25 · E. Gremza

2 · A. Poluyanov

4 · V. Ivanovsky

8 · A. Galushko

11 · D. Chergeyko

17 · A. Puzach

18 · Z. Dyatlov

22 · D. Khvostovich

Orsha

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Volodkov

3 N. Bykov

5 N. Tarbyakov

7 N. Bobchenok

8 I. Berezun

9 D. Tikhomirov

10 A. Alexandrovich

11 D. Stain

22 E. Kudinov

82 V. Shalychev

93 P. Bordukov

Coach · –

Substitutes

52 · R. Kravchenko

13 · D. Strebtsov

14 · A. Dambrovsky

18 · N. Volchenko

19 · V. Kostyukovich

69 · S. Bulakhov

88 · D. Rudenok

98 · A. Romanov

Our number · lida winPublished 11 Oct 13:14

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Lida a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.6–1.1, and 2–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lida win	68%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Orsha win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	87%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	49%	–	–
Lida or draw	86%	–	–
Lida clean sheet	34%	–	–
Orsha clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.0%

0123450 3.2 2.7 1 6.6 7.6 4.0 2 8.5 9.0 4.9 3 7.2 7.5 4.1 4 4.6 4.8 2.6 5 2.4 2.5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lida down, Orsha across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,484 1. Division matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.4% of games this season, across 247 played.

Head to head

12 previous meetings, 2.75 goals a meeting; 7 of 12 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lida at home: 1.83 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Orsha away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.55 goals for Lida, 1.09 for Orsha. Most likely score 2–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

12 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 12

~~Both scored~~7 of 12

~~Last meetings~~ORS 1–2 LID · LID 2–0 ORS · ORS 1–3 LID · ORS 2–4 LID

Form · last six in 1. Division

LIDA

WWWLWW2–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0

ORSHA

WLDLLD2–1 · 2–3 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 1–5 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	28	+29	60
2	Niva	28	+39	58
3	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	28	+29	56
4	Lida	27	+8	54
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	27	+1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	28	+10	43
8	Bumprom	28	+9	41
9	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
10	Ostrovets FC	28	−3	35
11	Volna	28	−10	35
12	Smorgon	27	−3	33
13	Minsk II	27	−13	30
14	Orsha	27	−23	27
15	Uni Minsk	27	−11	26
16	BATE II	27	−25	22
17	Gomel II	28	−22	21
18	Osipovichy	28	−38	20