Lida v Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Lida 1–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 LIDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lida win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.406

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lida win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lida was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–23–29
1′KICK-OFF Lida v Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
15′🟨 YELLOW · 15' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
45′HALF-TIME Lida 0–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
46′SUBSTITUTION · 5' Lida · On: D. Chergeyko · Off: A. Mazurich
46′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · On: D. Volkovets · Off: V. Rusakov
46′SECOND HALF Lida 0–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+3' Lida win: 48% at kick-off, 38% now
51′A goal for Lida on 50′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–7
51′We published Lida at 48%. Our model now makes it 74%. 1–0 · 74–19–7
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Lida 1–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Lida win: 48% at kick-off, 74% now
52′We published Lida at 48%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–7
58′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Lida win: 48% at kick-off, 78% now
65′Lida score on 65′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 96–4–1
65′We published Lida at 48%. Our model now makes it 96%. 2–0 · 96–4–1
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Lida 2–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Lida win: 48% at kick-off, 96% now
66′GOAL DISALLOWED · 66' Lida
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Lida win: 48% at kick-off, 79% now
69′PENALTY MISSED · 68' Lida
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Lida
77′We published Lida at 48%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' Lida win: 48% at kick-off, 88% now
82′We published Lida at 48%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Lida win: 48% at kick-off, 98% now
FTFULL TIME Lida 1–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
FTLida 1–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · Lida win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lida are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lida 48%, draw 22%, Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 29%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Lida v Molodechno-DYuSSh 4Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lida win48%

Draw22%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win29%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueYunost Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lida

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

6Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Lida	29	+10	60
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	28	−1	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lida winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Lida a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lida v Molodechno-DYuSSh 4~~1.93 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 4 Sept~~W5 D0 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 60 v 45~~3 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lida win	48%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Lida or draw	71%	–	–
Lida clean sheet	24%	–	–
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 clean sheet	15%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.9 4.8 3.7 1 6.3 9.7 6.8 3.4 2 6.2 8.8 6.4 3.2 3 4.0 5.7 4.1 2.0 4 2.8 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lida down, Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 across0–5 goals a side shown (97.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,496 1. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 259 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.29 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lida at home: 2.00 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away: 1.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.93 goals for Lida, 1.47 for Molodechno-DYuSSh 4. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.29

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~MOL 0–2 LID · MOL 1–0 LID · LID 0–1 MOL · MOL 2–3 LID

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 4 Sept

LIDA

WLWWWW3–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

MOLODECHNO-DYUSSH 4

WDWLLL3–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–4 · 1–5 · 2–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	29	+30	63
2	Niva	29	+41	61
3	Lida	29	+10	60
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	29	+20	53
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	28	−1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	29	+10	44
8	Bumprom	29	+8	41
9	Smorgon	29	0	39
10	Ostrovets FC	30	−1	39
11	Dinamo Minsk II	27	+1	35
12	Volna	29	−13	35
13	Minsk II	29	−12	33
14	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
15	Orsha	29	−25	27
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	29	−23	21