Gomel II v Lida prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 13:36

Gomel II 0–1 Lida LIDA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lida win~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.202

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lida win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lida 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 18–19–63
1′KICK-OFF Gomel II v Lida
8′🟨 YELLOW · 8' Gomel II
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Lida win: 63% at kick-off, 53% now
44′We said Lida at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 51%. 0–0 · 19–29–51
45′HALF-TIME Gomel II 0–0 Lida
46′SECOND HALF Gomel II 0–0 Lida
49′We said Lida at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 19–32–49
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.8 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 18–36–46
58′We said Lida at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 18–38–44
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Lida win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
65′We said Lida at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 17–44–39
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Lida win 39%)
70′We said Lida at 63%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 15–50–34
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Lida win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
74′A goal for Lida on 73′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–12–86
74′We said Lida at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 0–1 · 2–12–86
74′⚽ GOAL · 73' Gomel II 0–1 Lida
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Lida win: 63% at kick-off, 86% now
74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Lida win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
80′We said Lida at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Lida
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Lida win: 63% at kick-off, 93% now
88′We said Lida at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
FTFULL TIME Gomel II 0–1 Lida
FTGomel II 0–1 Lida · Lida win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lida are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Gomel II 18%, draw 18%, Lida 63%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Gomel II v LidaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Gomel II win18%

Draw18%

Lida win63%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueCentralnyj Stadion

Line-ups

Gomel II

Lida

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Gomel II

Lida

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Lida	28	+9	57
18	Gomel II	28	−22	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Gomel II

Formation not confirmed

88 V. Voropaev

2 A. Bondarchuk

3 K. Lipnitskiy

8 P. Sergutko

10 G. Protasenya

11 N. Starostenko

15 A. Rakhmatov

17 S. Krivorot

20 R. Shapovalov

72 D. Grishkov

77 N. Mayorov

Coach · –

Substitutes

87 · V. Ivanenko

7 · E. Tishkov

9 · A. Vinokurov

16 · A. Semenov

22 · M. Glushko

27 · M. Kabysh

30 · E. Yudenko

33 · V. Nanaev

Lida

Formation not confirmed

1 V. Vasilyuchek

2 A. Poluyanov

5 I. Tymonyuk

6 M. Katsynel

9 I. Kontsevoy

10 A. Chernodarov

13 E. Karpovich

17 A. Puzach

20 A. Mazurich

23 M. Zhestarev

27 D. Vashkevich

Coach · Aleksey Dobrovolskiy

Substitutes

16 · A. Yanushko

25 · E. Gremza

4 · V. Ivanovsky

8 · A. Galushko

11 · D. Chergeyko

18 · Z. Dyatlov

22 · D. Khvostovich

Our number · lida winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

63% The market–

Us63%

We make Lida a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–2.5, and 1–2 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Gomel II v Lida~~1.29 – 2.52

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W0 D0 L6 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 21 v 57~~18 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Gomel II win	18%	–	–
Draw	18%	–	–
Lida win	63%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	52%	–	–
Gomel II or draw	37%	–	–
Gomel II clean sheet	9%	–	–
Lida clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 8.8%

0123450 2.7 5.6 7.1 5.8 3.7 1 2.8 7.5 8.8 7.3 4.6 2.42 4.6 5.6 4.6 2.9 3 2.0 2.5 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Gomel II down, Lida across0–5 goals a side shown (94.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 1. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 255 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 3 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Gomel II at home: 1.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Lida away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Gomel II, 2.52 for Lida. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LID 2–1 GOM · GOM 0–5 LID · LID 3–0 GOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

GOMEL II

LLLLLL2–5 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 3–4 · 0–3 · 2–5

LIDA

WWLWWW2–1 · 3–2 · 0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	29	+30	63
2	Niva	29	+41	61
3	Lida	28	+9	57
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	28	−1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	29	+10	44
8	Bumprom	29	+8	41
9	Smorgon	29	0	39
10	Ostrovets FC	29	−3	36
11	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
12	Volna	28	−10	35
13	Minsk II	28	−15	30
14	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
15	Orsha	29	−25	27
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	28	−22	21