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FC Slutsk v Uni Minsk

FC Slutsk

1–0Full time

Uni Minsk

1. Division · SAT 10 OCT · Stadyen Haradski

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

FC Slutsk 1–0 Uni Minsk FC SLUTSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Slutsk win~~63%

~~The market said~~73%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.212

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.112

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Slutsk win at 63%.
1′Little has changed for our model: FC Slutsk 63% before kick-off, 63% now. 0–0 · 63–21–16
1′KICK-OFF FC Slutsk v Uni Minsk
8′🟨 YELLOW · 7' FC Slutsk
32′🟨 YELLOW · 32' FC Slutsk
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' FC Slutsk 1–0 Uni Minsk
42′39′ and it is 1–0: V. Papava on the scoresheet for FC Slutsk. 1–0 · 83–13–3
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' FC Slutsk win: 63% at kick-off, 83% now
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' FC Slutsk
45′We said FC Slutsk at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–13–3
45′HALF-TIME FC Slutsk 1–0 Uni Minsk
47′SECOND HALF FC Slutsk 1–0 Uni Minsk
62′We said FC Slutsk at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
84′We said FC Slutsk at 63% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' FC Slutsk win: 63% at kick-off, 95% now
FTFULL TIME FC Slutsk 1–0 Uni Minsk
FTFC Slutsk 1–0 Uni Minsk · FC Slutsk win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Slutsk win63%

Draw21%

Uni Minsk win16%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:30

Venue · Stadyen Haradski

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Slutsk

Formation not confirmed

30 I. Branovets

5 A. Chuduk

9 V. Sychev

10 P. Tseslyukevich

11 V. Fedosov

15 A. Rum

19 N. Bylinkin

21 I. Sidor

23 P. Kotlyarov

27 V. Kurlovich

97 V. Papava

Coach · Aleksander Gordeychik

Substitutes

32 · M. Sushchyi

3 · V. Tseluyko

8 · A. Blotskiy

16 · A. Semenov

17 · D. Nekrashevich

25 · V. Kulchitskiy

45 · V. Chebotar

72 · B. Kutsiy

77 · A. Kontsedailov

80 · M. Litskevich

Uni Minsk

Formation not confirmed

13 K. Pankratov

7 D. Narchuk

11 V. Popov

14 R. Yamlikhanov

27 I. Tolkachev

29 V. Kiselev

32 V. Urbanovich

33 D. Lapin

69 E. Snapkov

95 I. Vorobyov

98 M. Svidinskiy

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · R. Babaev

5 · P. Vakulich

8 · E. Sakuta

9 · B. Gusev

19 · N. Mirskiy

21 · I. Amialiusik

30 · D. Khalimonchikov

42 · M. Volodko

55 · S. Melnik

91 · E. Radkov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Slutsk

Formation not confirmed

30 I. Branovets

5 A. Chuduk

9 V. Sychev

10 P. Tseslyukevich

11 V. Fedosov

15 A. Rum

19 N. Bylinkin

21 I. Sidor

23 P. Kotlyarov

27 V. Kurlovich

97 V. Papava

Coach · Aleksander Gordeychik

Substitutes

32 · M. Sushchyi

3 · V. Tseluyko

8 · A. Blotskiy

16 · A. Semenov

17 · D. Nekrashevich

25 · V. Kulchitskiy

45 · V. Chebotar

72 · B. Kutsiy

77 · A. Kontsedailov

80 · M. Litskevich

Uni Minsk

Formation not confirmed

13 K. Pankratov

7 D. Narchuk

11 V. Popov

14 R. Yamlikhanov

27 I. Tolkachev

29 V. Kiselev

32 V. Urbanovich

33 D. Lapin

69 E. Snapkov

95 I. Vorobyov

98 M. Svidinskiy

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · R. Babaev

5 · P. Vakulich

8 · E. Sakuta

9 · B. Gusev

19 · N. Mirskiy

21 · I. Amialiusik

30 · D. Khalimonchikov

42 · M. Volodko

55 · S. Melnik

91 · E. Radkov

Our number · fc slutsk winPublished 10 Oct 13:47

63% The market73%

Us63%

~~Market~~73%

We make FC Slutsk a 63% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc slutsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Slutsk win	63%	73%	−11
Draw	21%	17%	+4
Uni Minsk win	16%	9%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
Both teams to score	52%	45%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	35%	35%	−1
FC Slutsk or draw	84%	91%	−7
FC Slutsk clean sheet	40%	–	–
Uni Minsk clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.6%

0123450 5.9 4.5 2.3 1 10.3 10.0 4.4 2 10.6 9.6 4.4 3 7.2 6.5 3.0 4 3.8 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Slutsk down, Uni Minsk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,478 1. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 241 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Slutsk at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Uni Minsk away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.04 goals for FC Slutsk, 0.92 for Uni Minsk. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~UNI 0–1 FCS

Form · last six in 1. Division

FC SLUTSK

WDWWWW4–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 4–3 · 4–1

UNI MINSK

WLDLLD4–0 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	27	+28	57
2	Niva	27	+36	55
3	Lida	27	+8	54
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	27	+25	53
5	Slonim	27	+17	47
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	26	+5	45
7	Bumprom	27	+11	41
8	Shakhter Soligorsk	27	+8	40
9	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
10	Ostrovets FC	27	−2	35
11	Volna	27	−10	34
12	Smorgon	27	−3	33
13	Minsk II	27	−13	30
14	Orsha	27	−23	27
15	Uni Minsk	26	−10	26
16	BATE II	27	−25	22
17	Gomel II	27	−19	21
18	Osipovichy	27	−38	19