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FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk v Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

5–1Full time

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

1. Division · SAT 10 OCT · RCOP-BGU Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 5–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 FC ENERGETIK-BGU MINSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win~~46%

~~The market said~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.442

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.350

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win at 46%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–24–30
1′KICK-OFF FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk v Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 1–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
12′D. Chul scores for FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 70–18–12
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win: 46% at kick-off, 70% now
17′⚽ GOAL · 16' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 2–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
23′FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk find the net on 22′. 3–0. 3–0 · 97–2–1
23′⚽ GOAL · 22' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 3–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win: 46% at kick-off, 97% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 4–0 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
38′M. Korytko scores for FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk on 23′ — 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 4–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 5–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
45′HALF-TIME FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 5–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
46′SECOND HALF FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 5–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FTFULL TIME FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 5–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4
FTFC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 5–1 Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 · FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win46%

Draw24%

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · RCOP-BGU Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Seledtsov

4 D. Royko

6 V. Prigodich

8 E. Lukashenko

9 M. Korytko

10 D. Chul

17 A. Kartoev

22 A. Guz

23 M. Yaskevich

80 N. Knyshev

98 A. Slivin

Coach · Aleksey Merkulov

Substitutes

19 · V. Kazlovskiy

3 · F. Fedorovich

7 · M. Nikiforenko

11 · A. Zhlobich

16 · A. Yunusov

18 · F. Egiptsev

20 · A. Kholyusev

21 · A. Konyakhin

27 · R. Silkin

77 · K. Parmonov

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Tretyak

10 D. Volkovets

12 D. Gruzhevskiy

14 I. Koval

15 A. Alshanik

17 V. Belashevich

18 A. Petrusevich

20 P. Klenye

23 A. Kotlyarov

49 I. Chernykh

55 E. Imeryakov

Coach · Yuri Puntus

Substitutes

33 · O. Diva

5 · V. Rusakov

7 · B. Levchenko

9 · E. Shmarov

11 · A. Voronovich

22 · S. Atrashkevich

29 · T. Dubovik

77 · A. Yushkevich

78 · F. Solovey

91 · T. Mamedov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Seledtsov

4 D. Royko

6 V. Prigodich

8 E. Lukashenko

9 M. Korytko

10 D. Chul

17 A. Kartoev

22 A. Guz

23 M. Yaskevich

80 N. Knyshev

98 A. Slivin

Coach · Aleksey Merkulov

Substitutes

19 · V. Kazlovskiy

3 · F. Fedorovich

7 · M. Nikiforenko

11 · A. Zhlobich

16 · A. Yunusov

18 · F. Egiptsev

20 · A. Kholyusev

21 · A. Konyakhin

27 · R. Silkin

77 · K. Parmonov

Molodechno-DYuSSh 4

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Tretyak

10 D. Volkovets

12 D. Gruzhevskiy

14 I. Koval

15 A. Alshanik

17 V. Belashevich

18 A. Petrusevich

20 P. Klenye

23 A. Kotlyarov

49 I. Chernykh

55 E. Imeryakov

Coach · Yuri Puntus

Substitutes

33 · O. Diva

5 · V. Rusakov

7 · B. Levchenko

9 · E. Shmarov

11 · A. Voronovich

22 · S. Atrashkevich

29 · T. Dubovik

77 · A. Yushkevich

78 · F. Solovey

91 · T. Mamedov

Our number · fc energetik-bgu minsk winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

46% The market52%

Us46%

~~Market~~52%

We make FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc energetik-bgu minsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win	46%	52%	−6
Draw	24%	23%	+1
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 win	30%	25%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	59%	61%	−3
Both teams to score	60%	61%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	39%	−2
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk or draw	70%	75%	−4
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk clean sheet	27%	–	–
Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.5 6.0 4.3 1 7.7 11.1 7.1 3.2 2 6.9 8.9 5.9 2.7 3 4.0 5.1 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk down, Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,478 1. Division matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 64.3% of games this season, across 241 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at home: 2.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Molodechno-DYuSSh 4 away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.72 goals for FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk, 1.34 for Molodechno-DYuSSh 4. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MOL 1–4 FCE · FCE 0–1 MOL · MOL 3–3 FCE

Form · last six in 1. Division

FC ENERGETIK-BGU MINSK

WWLWWW2–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 3–0

MOLODECHNO-DYUSSH 4

WWWDWL4–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	27	+28	57
2	Niva	27	+36	55
3	Lida	27	+8	54
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	27	+25	53
5	Slonim	27	+17	47
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	26	+5	45
7	Bumprom	27	+11	41
8	Shakhter Soligorsk	27	+8	40
9	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
10	Ostrovets FC	27	−2	35
11	Volna	27	−10	34
12	Smorgon	27	−3	33
13	Minsk II	27	−13	30
14	Orsha	27	−23	27
15	Uni Minsk	26	−10	26
16	BATE II	27	−25	22
17	Gomel II	27	−19	21
18	Osipovichy	27	−38	19