Dinamo Minsk II v Ostrovets FC prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02

Dinamo Minsk II 0–2 Ostrovets FC DINAMO MINSK II WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Minsk II win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.690

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 15 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Minsk II win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Minsk II 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–33
1′KICK-OFF Dinamo Minsk II v Ostrovets FC
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Ostrovets FC
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Dinamo Minsk II
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Dinamo Minsk II win 35%)
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Minsk II 0–0 Ostrovets FC
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Minsk II 0–0 Ostrovets FC
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Dinamo Minsk II win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
55′We said Dinamo Minsk II at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–46–25
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 29–47–24
59′Ostrovets FC find the net on 59′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–21–73
59′We said Dinamo Minsk II at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 0–1 · 6–21–73
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Dinamo Minsk II 0–1 Ostrovets FC
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 59' Dinamo Minsk II win: 41% at kick-off, 6% now
59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Ostrovets FC win is now our likeliest result at 73% (was Draw 48%)
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Dinamo Minsk II
65′We said Dinamo Minsk II at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
71′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Ostrovets FC
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Dinamo Minsk II win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
80′A goal for Ostrovets FC on 80′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Dinamo Minsk II 0–2 Ostrovets FC
81′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Minsk II 0–2 Ostrovets FC
FTDinamo Minsk II 0–2 Ostrovets FC · Dinamo Minsk II win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Minsk II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Minsk II 41%, draw 27%, Ostrovets FC 33%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Minsk II v Ostrovets FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Minsk II win41%

Draw27%

Ostrovets FC win33%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 30

VenueRCOP-BGU Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Minsk II

Ostrovets FC

5Days since last match6

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Ostrovets FC	29	−3	36
11	Dinamo Minsk II	26	+3	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dinamo minsk ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Dinamo Minsk II a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Minsk II v Ostrovets FC~~1.40 – 1.23

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 26 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 35 v 36~~11 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Minsk II win

Published at 42%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Minsk II win	41%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Ostrovets FC win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Dinamo Minsk II or draw	67%	–	–
Dinamo Minsk II clean sheet	30%	–	–
Ostrovets FC clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.9 8.6 5.5 2.3 1 9.8 12.5 7.4 3.1 2 7.1 8.4 5.1 2.1 3 3.4 4.0 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Minsk II down, Ostrovets FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,495 1. Division matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.2% of games this season, across 258 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Minsk II at home: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Ostrovets FC away: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Dinamo Minsk II, 1.23 for Ostrovets FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~OST 1–1 DIN · OST 0–1 DIN · DIN 0–1 OST · OST 0–3 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 26 Aug

DINAMO MINSK II

WWLDWL4–1 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

OSTROVETS FC

WLDDLD3–1 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	29	+30	63
2	Niva	29	+41	61
3	Lida	29	+10	60
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	29	+20	53
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	28	−1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	29	+10	44
8	Bumprom	29	+8	41
9	Smorgon	29	0	39
10	Ostrovets FC	29	−3	36
11	Dinamo Minsk II	26	+3	35
12	Volna	29	−13	35
13	Minsk II	29	−12	33
14	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
15	Orsha	29	−25	27
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	29	−23	21