Bumprom v Volna prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 17:24

Bumprom 1–3 Volna BUMPROM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bumprom win~~52%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.870

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bumprom are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bumprom 52%, draw 22%, Volna 26%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Bumprom v VolnaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Bumprom win52%

Draw22%

Volna win26%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 30

VenueSDYuShOR-6 Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bumprom

Volna

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 18 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bumprom	29	+8	41
12	Volna	29	−13	35

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bumprom winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

52% The market–

Us52%

We make Bumprom a 52% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bumprom v Volna~~2.05 – 1.38

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 41 v 35~~8 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bumprom win

Published at 50%, 52% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bumprom win	52%	–	–
Draw	22%	–	–
Volna win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	64%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Bumprom or draw	74%	–	–
Bumprom clean sheet	26%	–	–
Volna clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.4%

0123450 3.8 4.4 3.2 1 6.5 9.4 6.2 2.9 2 6.7 9.0 6.2 2.9 3 4.6 6.1 4.2 4 2.4 3.2 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bumprom down, Volna across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,496 1. Division matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 259 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.43 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bumprom at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Volna away: 0.67 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.05 goals for Bumprom, 1.38 for Volna. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~VOL 2–1 BUM · VOL 0–1 BUM · BUM 1–1 VOL · VOL 3–0 BUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 12 Sept

BUMPROM

LWDWLL1–2 · 4–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 0–1

VOLNA

LLLLDL0–1 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	29	+30	63
2	Niva	29	+41	61
3	Lida	29	+10	60
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	29	+20	53
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	28	−1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	29	+10	44
8	Bumprom	29	+8	41
9	Smorgon	29	0	39
10	Ostrovets FC	30	−1	39
11	Dinamo Minsk II	27	+1	35
12	Volna	29	−13	35
13	Minsk II	29	−12	33
14	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
15	Orsha	29	−25	27
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	29	−23	21