BATE II v FC Slutsk prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 16:02

BATE II 0–1 FC Slutsk FC SLUTSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Slutsk win~~60%

~~The market said~~75%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.246

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.099

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Slutsk win at 60%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Slutsk was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 60% now. 0–0 · 20–20–60
1′KICK-OFF BATE II v FC Slutsk
32′FC Slutsk find the net on 32′. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–14–80
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' BATE II 0–1 FC Slutsk
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' FC Slutsk win: 60% at kick-off, 80% now
33′We published FC Slutsk at 60%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 6–14–80
34′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 0–1 · 6–14–80
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45' FC Slutsk
45′HALF-TIME BATE II 0–1 FC Slutsk
46′SECOND HALF BATE II 0–1 FC Slutsk
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' FC Slutsk
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' FC Slutsk
70′We published FC Slutsk at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
80′We published FC Slutsk at 60%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' FC Slutsk win: 60% at kick-off, 90% now
87′We published FC Slutsk at 60%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' FC Slutsk
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' BATE II
FTFULL TIME BATE II 0–1 FC Slutsk
FTBATE II 0–1 FC Slutsk · FC Slutsk win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Slutsk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: BATE II 20%, draw 20%, FC Slutsk 60%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on BATE II v FC SlutskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

BATE II win20%

Draw20%

FC Slutsk win60%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueHaradski Stadium

Line-ups

BATE II

FC Slutsk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

BATE II

FC Slutsk

14Days since last match6

Last match: 2 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

BATE II

Formation not confirmed

35 A. Ryabinkin

4 N. Shcherbakov

5 A. Apanasevich

9 T. Gagloev

10 E. Grivenev

14 M. Telesh

17 A. Sakhonchik

21 I. Kuimov

24 A. Zhurin

47 E. Machnach

77 Y. Kuzmenok

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · M. Klyakin

3 · E. Shakhnovich

6 · M. Karpovich

7 · R. Aliyev

8 · P. Kolosovskiy

18 · T. Sargsyan

22 · M. Gavrilov

44 · K. Apanasevich

66 · V. Kisel

68 · E. Starikov

FC Slutsk

Formation not confirmed

30 I. Branovets

5 A. Chuduk

9 V. Sychev

10 P. Tseslyukevich

11 V. Fedosov

19 N. Bylinkin

21 I. Sidor

23 P. Kotlyarov

27 V. Kurlovich

77 A. Kontsedailov

97 V. Papava

Coach · Aleksander Gordeychik

Substitutes

32 · M. Sushchyi

3 · V. Tseluyko

6 · A. Tolkin

8 · A. Blotskiy

16 · A. Semenov

17 · D. Nekrashevich

25 · V. Kulchitskiy

45 · V. Chebotar

72 · B. Kutsiy

80 · M. Litskevich

Our number · fc slutsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 14 Oct 04:34 · locked at kick-off

60% The market75%

Us60%

~~Market~~75%

We make FC Slutsk a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 75%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · BATE II v FC Slutsk~~1.22 – 2.24

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 22 v 60~~16 v 1

~~The market · FC Slutsk win~~75% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Slutsk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 59%, 60% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 75% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
BATE II win	20%	9%	+11
Draw	20%	16%	+4
FC Slutsk win	60%	75%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	66%	64%	+2
Both teams to score	62%	51%	+11
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	42%	+3
BATE II or draw	40%	25%	+15
BATE II clean sheet	11%	–	–
FC Slutsk clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–2 at 9.3%

0123450 3.8 6.9 7.8 5.8 3.3 1 3.7 8.9 9.3 6.8 3.9 2 2.5 5.2 5.6 4.1 2.3 3 2.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+BATE II down, FC Slutsk across0–5 goals a side shown (96.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,486 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.9% of games this season, across 249 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2024 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

BATE II at home: 2.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). FC Slutsk away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for BATE II, 2.24 for FC Slutsk. Most likely score 1–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FCS 2–0 BAT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

BATE II

DLWLLD2–2 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

FC SLUTSK

DWWWWW1–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 4–3 · 4–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	28	+29	60
2	Niva	28	+39	58
3	Lida	28	+9	57
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	28	+29	56
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	27	+1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	28	+10	43
8	Bumprom	28	+9	41
9	Smorgon	28	−1	36
10	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
11	Ostrovets FC	28	−3	35
12	Volna	28	−10	35
13	Minsk II	28	−15	30
14	Orsha	28	−24	27
15	Uni Minsk	27	−11	26
16	BATE II	27	−25	22
17	Gomel II	28	−22	21
18	Osipovichy	28	−38	20