PWD Sports Club v Mohammedan Dhaka prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 12:17

PWD Sports Club 0–2 Mohammedan Dhaka MOHAMMEDAN DHAKA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mohammedan Dhaka win~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.252

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mohammedan Dhaka win at 59%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mohammedan Dhaka was 59% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 16–22–62
1′KICK-OFF PWD Sports Club v Mohammedan Dhaka
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 59% at kick-off, 49% now
43′SUBSTITUTION · 36' Mohammedan Dhaka · On: M. A. Ballu · Off: S. Hossain
44′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 47%. 0–0 · 16–37–47
45′HALF-TIME PWD Sports Club 0–0 Mohammedan Dhaka
45′SECOND HALF PWD Sports Club 0–0 Mohammedan Dhaka
46′We published Mohammedan Dhaka at 59%. Our model now makes it 84%. 0–1 · 3–13–84
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' PWD Sports Club 0–1 Mohammedan Dhaka
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 59% at kick-off, 84% now
47′A goal for Mohammedan Dhaka on 46′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–13–84
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mohammedan Dhaka · On: E. Sunday · Off: E. T. Agbaji
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mohammedan Dhaka · On: S. A. Topu · Off: M. S. Rana
49′We published Mohammedan Dhaka at 59%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 3–13–85
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Mohammedan Dhaka · On: S. Dewan · Off: A. Hossain
51′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 59%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 15–41–44 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
52′🟨 YELLOW · 45+8' PWD Sports Club
52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Mohammedan Dhaka
65′🟨 YELLOW · 65' PWD Sports Club
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PWD Sports Club · On: M. Manik · Off: A. Ali Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 65' PWD Sports Club · On: M. Manik · Off: K. Reda
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 59% at kick-off, 89% now
74′We published Mohammedan Dhaka at 59%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
78′A goal for Mohammedan Dhaka on 78′. 0–1 · 0–8–92
79′We published Mohammedan Dhaka at 59%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' PWD Sports Club 0–2 Mohammedan Dhaka
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 59% at kick-off, over 99% now
80′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' PWD Sports Club
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' PWD Sports Club · On: A. Ahamed · Off: M. Saju Ahamed
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' PWD Sports Club · On: J. Uddin · Off: R. Islam
90′Full time, 0–2. We called Mohammedan Dhaka at 59% — that one lands. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' PWD Sports Club · On: M. Jubayer Ahmed · Off: Y. Mbida
FTFULL TIME PWD Sports Club 0–2 Mohammedan Dhaka
FTPWD Sports Club 0–2 Mohammedan Dhaka · Mohammedan Dhaka win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mohammedan Dhaka are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PWD Sports Club 15%, draw 25%, Mohammedan Dhaka 59%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on PWD Sports Club v Mohammedan DhakaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

PWD Sports Club win15%

Draw25%

Mohammedan Dhaka win59%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 4

Line-ups

PWD Sports Club

Mohammedan Dhaka

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PWD Sports Club

Mohammedan Dhaka

7Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Mohammedan Dhaka	18	+7	23
8	PWD Sports Club	18	−13	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

PWD Sports Club

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Saju Ahamed

5 M. I. Islam

4 S. Das

2 M. Ur Rashid

9 Y. Mbida

3 I. Riduan

13 M. Ratul

20 F. Baloki

16 A. Ali

23 R. Islam

10 K. Reda

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · A. Ahamed

12 · M. Jubayer Ahmed

25 · M. I. Haque

32 · K. Hasan

27 · S. Islam Rana

31 · M. Khan

19 · M. Manik

30 · A. N. Rahat

18 · M. Yamin Rana

24 · M. Shadhin

7 · N. Ucchash

11 · J. Uddin

Mohammedan Dhaka

Formation not confirmed

23 A. Rahman

55 E. T. Agbaji

3 M. J. Hasan Shanta

22 S. Uddin

98 R. Mia

21 S. Hossain

6 M. S. Rana

77 A. Hossain

17 M. Muzaffarov

99 S. Emon

10 S. Diabate

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · S. Hossain

2 · S. A. Topu

4 · I. Hossen

5 · S. Ahammad

8 · M. H. Royal

9 · R. Uddin

18 · S. Dewan

37 · E. Sunday

71 · R. Hossain

7 · M. A. Ballu

30 · I. Hossain Mahin

25 · M. Islam

Our number · mohammedan dhaka winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

59% The market–

Us59%

We make Mohammedan Dhaka a 59% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PWD Sports Club v Mohammedan Dhaka~~0.82 – 1.85

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept~~W0 D3 L0 · W2 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 17 v 23~~8 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Mohammedan Dhaka win

Published at 57%, 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PWD Sports Club win	15%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Mohammedan Dhaka win	59%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
PWD Sports Club or draw	41%	–	–
PWD Sports Club clean sheet	17%	–	–
Mohammedan Dhaka clean sheet	45%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 9.1 11.4 11.6 7.2 3.6 1 4.3 11.7 9.0 5.5 2.6 2 2.5 4.3 3.8 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PWD Sports Club down, Mohammedan Dhaka across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 686 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PWD Sports Club at home: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Mohammedan Dhaka away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.82 goals for PWD Sports Club, 1.85 for Mohammedan Dhaka. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~PWD 1–3 MOH · MOH 4–0 PWD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept

PWD SPORTS CLUB

DDD0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

MOHAMMEDAN DHAKA

WW1–0 · 6–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bashundhara Kings	18	+24	41
2	Abahani	18	+22	37
3	Fortis	18	+18	35
4	Bangladesh Police	18	+4	27
5	Mohammedan Dhaka	18	+7	23
6	Rahmatgonj MFS	18	−4	23
7	Brothers Union	18	−11	17
8	PWD Sports Club	18	−13	17
9	Arambagh	18	−16	14
10	Fakirerpool	18	−31	10