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PWD Sports Club v Bangladesh Police

PWD Sports Club

0–1Full time

Bangladesh Police

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:41

PWD Sports Club 0–1 Bangladesh Police BANGLADESH POLICE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Bangladesh Police win~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.373

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bangladesh Police win at 51%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bangladesh Police 51% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 19–31–50
1′KICK-OFF PWD Sports Club v Bangladesh Police
13′A goal for Bangladesh Police on 13′. 0–0 · 19–33–48
13′We said Bangladesh Police at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–1 · 6–13–81
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' PWD Sports Club 0–1 Bangladesh Police
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Bangladesh Police win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 4–14–81
45′HALF-TIME PWD Sports Club 0–1 Bangladesh Police
45′SECOND HALF PWD Sports Club 0–1 Bangladesh Police
46′S. Kagimu scores for Bangladesh Police on 11′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 3–14–83
52′SUBSTITUTION · 46' PWD Sports Club · On: K. Reda · Off: N. Ucchash
54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' PWD Sports Club
57′We said Bangladesh Police at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' PWD Sports Club · On: M. Ratul · Off: J. Uddin
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' PWD Sports Club · On: S. Das · Off: R. Islam
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Bangladesh Police
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Bangladesh Police · On: M. Islam Moin · Off: M. Bablu
73′We said Bangladesh Police at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Bangladesh Police · On: Marcelo Junior · Off: R. Ba
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Bangladesh Police · On: M. Islam · Off: M. Miah
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Bangladesh Police win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' PWD Sports Club · On: N. Uddin · Off: A. Ali
84′We said Bangladesh Police at 51% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–4–95
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' PWD Sports Club · On: M. Shadhin · Off: K. Reda
96′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Bangladesh Police · On: H. Arian · Off: Rahul Junior
FTFULL TIME PWD Sports Club 0–1 Bangladesh Police
FTPWD Sports Club 0–1 Bangladesh Police · Bangladesh Police win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bangladesh Police are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: PWD Sports Club 19%, draw 31%, Bangladesh Police 51%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on PWD Sports Club v Bangladesh PoliceBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

PWD Sports Club win19%

Draw31%

Bangladesh Police win51%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

PWD Sports Club

Bangladesh Police

4Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Oct · Federation Cup (Bangladesh)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bangladesh Police	4	+12	10
9	PWD Sports Club	4	−2	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bangladesh police winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

51% The market–

Us51%

We make Bangladesh Police a 51% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.4, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · PWD Sports Club v Bangladesh Police~~0.77 – 1.43

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept~~W0 D3 L1 · W3 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 10~~9 v 1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
PWD Sports Club win	19%	–	–
Draw	31%	–	–
Bangladesh Police win	51%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
PWD Sports Club or draw	49%	–	–
PWD Sports Club clean sheet	25%	–	–
Bangladesh Police clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.5 14.1 11.2 5.5 2.1 1 6.7 13.4 8.2 3.9 2 3.4 4.6 3.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+PWD Sports Club down, Bangladesh Police across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 693 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

PWD Sports Club at home: 0.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Bangladesh Police away: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.77 goals for PWD Sports Club, 1.43 for Bangladesh Police. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~BAN 1–0 PWD · PWD 0–0 BAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept

PWD SPORTS CLUB

DDDL0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2

BANGLADESH POLICE

WWWD1–0 · 3–0 · 8–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bangladesh Police	4	+12	10
2	Mohammedan Dhaka	3	+9	9
3	Fortis	3	+12	7
4	Bashundhara Kings	3	+10	7
5	Abahani	4	+5	7
6	City Club	4	+1	7
7	Rahmatgonj MFS	5	0	6
8	Brothers Union	5	−8	5
9	PWD Sports Club	4	−2	3
10	Arambagh	4	−6	3
11	Fakirerpool	4	−9	3
12	Chattogram	4	−12	0
13	Dhaka Wanderers	3	−12	0