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Mohammedan Dhaka v Dhaka Wanderers

Mohammedan Dhaka

4–0Full time

Dhaka Wanderers

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT · Rafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:41

Mohammedan Dhaka 4–0 Dhaka Wanderers MOHAMMEDAN DHAKA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT3–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mohammedan Dhaka win~~86%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.031

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mohammedan Dhaka win at 86%.
1′Much as we predicted: Mohammedan Dhaka was 86% before kick-off and our model makes it 86% now. 0–0 · 86–10–4
1′KICK-OFF Mohammedan Dhaka v Dhaka Wanderers
21′SUBSTITUTION · 19' Mohammedan Dhaka · On: S. Emon · Off: S. Hossain
30′Mohammedan Dhaka find the net on 29′. 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–1
30′⚽ GOAL · 29' Mohammedan Dhaka 1–0 Dhaka Wanderers
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Mohammedan Dhaka
45′HALF-TIME Mohammedan Dhaka 1–0 Dhaka Wanderers
45′SECOND HALF Mohammedan Dhaka 1–0 Dhaka Wanderers
52′We published Mohammedan Dhaka at 86%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Mohammedan Dhaka 2–0 Dhaka Wanderers
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 86% at kick-off, 99% now
53′A goal for Mohammedan Dhaka on 53′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
55′S. Diabate scores for Mohammedan Dhaka on 52′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
56′We published Mohammedan Dhaka at 86%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Mohammedan Dhaka 3–0 Dhaka Wanderers
57′Mohammedan Dhaka score on 56′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
57′Goals are coming at about the 4.5 we expected. 3–0 · 100–0–0
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dhaka Wanderers · On: H. Biswas · Off: A. Bailey
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mohammedan Dhaka · On: M. Islam · Off: M. Fahim
74′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Mohammedan Dhaka · On: I. Hossain · Off: S. A. Topu
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Mohammedan Dhaka · On: A. Hossain · Off: E. Sunday
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Dhaka Wanderers
86′Mohammedan Dhaka find the net on 86′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Mohammedan Dhaka 4–0 Dhaka Wanderers
93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Dhaka Wanderers · On: J. Ahmed · Off: U. Diarra
FTFULL TIME Mohammedan Dhaka 4–0 Dhaka Wanderers
FTMohammedan Dhaka 4–0 Dhaka Wanderers · Mohammedan Dhaka win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 3–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mohammedan Dhaka are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mohammedan Dhaka 86%, draw 10%, Dhaka Wanderers 4%. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Mohammedan Dhaka v Dhaka WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mohammedan Dhaka win86%

Draw10%

Dhaka Wanderers win4%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 5

VenueRafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mohammedan Dhaka

Dhaka Wanderers

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Federation Cup (Bangladesh)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Mohammedan Dhaka	3	+9	9
13	Dhaka Wanderers	3	−12	0

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mohammedan dhaka winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

86% The market–

Us86%

We make Mohammedan Dhaka an 86% chance to win. The model expects 3.8–0.7, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 9%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mohammedan Dhaka v Dhaka Wanderers~~3.81 – 0.73

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept~~W3 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 9 v 0~~2 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mohammedan Dhaka win	86%	–	–
Draw	10%	–	–
Dhaka Wanderers win	4%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	80%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	93%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	63%	–	–
Mohammedan Dhaka or draw	96%	–	–
Mohammedan Dhaka clean sheet	49%	–	–
Dhaka Wanderers clean sheet	3%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 9.2%

0123450 2.2 1 4.3 4.3 2 8.1 6.0 2.4 3 9.2 6.6 2.6 4 8.2 5.7 2.2 5 6.3 4.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Mohammedan Dhaka down, Dhaka Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (79.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 693 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 4.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mohammedan Dhaka at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dhaka Wanderers away: 1.00 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

3.81 goals for Mohammedan Dhaka, 0.73 for Dhaka Wanderers. Most likely score 3–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~4.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MOH 3–0 DHA · DHA 0–6 MOH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept

MOHAMMEDAN DHAKA

WWW1–0 · 6–0 · 2–0

DHAKA WANDERERS

LLL1–2 · 1–5 · 0–7

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bangladesh Police	4	+12	10
2	Mohammedan Dhaka	3	+9	9
3	Fortis	3	+12	7
4	Bashundhara Kings	3	+10	7
5	Abahani	4	+5	7
6	City Club	4	+1	7
7	Rahmatgonj MFS	5	0	6
8	Brothers Union	5	−8	5
9	PWD Sports Club	4	−2	3
10	Arambagh	4	−6	3
11	Fakirerpool	4	−9	3
12	Chattogram	4	−12	0
13	Dhaka Wanderers	3	−12	0