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Fakirerpool v Rahmatgonj MFS

Fakirerpool

2–3Full time

Rahmatgonj MFS

Premier League · FRI 23 OCT · Shahid Barkat Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 12:31

Fakirerpool 2–3 Rahmatgonj MFS RAHMATGONJ MFS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Rahmatgonj MFS win~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Rahmatgonj MFS win at 62%.
1′Much as we predicted: Rahmatgonj MFS was 62% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 16–21–62
1′KICK-OFF Fakirerpool v Rahmatgonj MFS
23′A goal for Fakirerpool on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 42–24–33
23′We said Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 1–0 · 42–24–33
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Fakirerpool 1–0 Rahmatgonj MFS
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Rahmatgonj MFS win: 62% at kick-off, 33% now
23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Fakirerpool win is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Rahmatgonj MFS win 58%)
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Rahmatgonj MFS win: 62% at kick-off, 32% now
27′S. Sillah scores for Fakirerpool on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 44–25–32
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.5 we expected. 1–0 · 44–25–30
33′We said Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 45–26–29
42′We said Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 49–27–24
44′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Rahmatgonj MFS · On: K. Deuba · Off: A. Miah
44′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Rahmatgonj MFS · On: A. Hossain · Off: M. R. Kazi
45′HALF-TIME Fakirerpool 1–0 Rahmatgonj MFS
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+1' Rahmatgonj MFS win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
46′SECOND HALF Fakirerpool 1–0 Rahmatgonj MFS
51′We said Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 53–28–19
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fakirerpool · On: M. Riyad · Off: S. Hossain
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Fakirerpool · On: T. H. Anik · Off: S. Hossain
57′Rahmatgonj MFS score on 57′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 17–39–44
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Fakirerpool 1–1 Rahmatgonj MFS
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Rahmatgonj MFS win: 62% at kick-off, 44% now
57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Rahmatgonj MFS win is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Fakirerpool win 56%)
58′We said Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 17–40–43
63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Rahmatgonj MFS win 42%)
64′We said Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 15–46–39
66′Rahmatgonj MFS find the net on 65′. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–13–85
66′We published Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–13–85
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Fakirerpool 1–2 Rahmatgonj MFS
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Rahmatgonj MFS win: 62% at kick-off, 85% now
66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Rahmatgonj MFS win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 47%)
67′Rahmatgonj MFS ahead on 66′ through A. Limbu. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–13–85
72′A goal for Fakirerpool on 72′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 13–56–31
72′4 goals already, more than the 3.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 13–56–31
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Fakirerpool 2–2 Rahmatgonj MFS
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Rahmatgonj MFS win: 62% at kick-off, 31% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Rahmatgonj MFS win 86%)
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Fakirerpool
78′S. Sillah scores for Fakirerpool on 71′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 10–66–23
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Rahmatgonj MFS win: 62% at kick-off, 22% now
80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Fakirerpool
84′We said Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–2 · 6–80–13
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rahmatgonj MFS · On: A. Hasan · Off: T. Das
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rahmatgonj MFS · On: S. Bepari · Off: P. Owusu
85′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Rahmatgonj MFS · On: M. Faizullah · Off: M. Munna
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Rahmatgonj MFS win: 62% at kick-off, 12% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Fakirerpool · On: R. Hossain · Off: M. Ganto
88′We said Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–2 · 4–86–9
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Fakirerpool
93′We said Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 2–94–4
95′We published Rahmatgonj MFS at 62%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–3 · 0–1–99
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Fakirerpool 2–3 Rahmatgonj MFS
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Rahmatgonj MFS win: 62% at kick-off, 99% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Rahmatgonj MFS win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 96%)
96′Rahmatgonj MFS score on 90′ to make it 2–3. 2–3 · 0–1–99
97′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.5 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–1–99
FTFULL TIME Fakirerpool 2–3 Rahmatgonj MFS
FTFakirerpool 2–3 Rahmatgonj MFS · Rahmatgonj MFS win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Rahmatgonj MFS are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fakirerpool 16%, draw 21%, Rahmatgonj MFS 62%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Fakirerpool v Rahmatgonj MFSBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Fakirerpool win16%

Draw21%

Rahmatgonj MFS win62%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 5

VenueShahid Barkat Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fakirerpool

Rahmatgonj MFS

10Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · Federation Cup (Bangladesh)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Rahmatgonj MFS	4	−1	3
10	Fakirerpool	3	−8	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · rahmatgonj mfs winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

62% The market–

Us62%

We make Rahmatgonj MFS a 62% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Fakirerpool v Rahmatgonj MFS~~1.11 – 2.34

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D0 L2 · W0 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~10 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Fakirerpool win	16%	–	–
Draw	21%	–	–
Rahmatgonj MFS win	62%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	86%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Fakirerpool or draw	38%	–	–
Fakirerpool clean sheet	11%	–	–
Rahmatgonj MFS clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 4.9 6.4 8.5 6.5 3.9 1 2.5 9.6 9.1 6.9 4.1 2.12 2.2 4.6 5.1 3.8 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Fakirerpool down, Rahmatgonj MFS across0–5 goals a side shown (95.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 691 Premier League matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Fakirerpool at home: 0.67 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Rahmatgonj MFS away: 0.83 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Fakirerpool, 2.34 for Rahmatgonj MFS. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FAK 0–0 RAH · RAH 3–0 FAK · FAK 0–2 RAH · RAH 1–2 FAK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept

FAKIRERPOOL

WLL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–8

RAHMATGONJ MFS

LDDD0–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bangladesh Police	4	+12	10
2	Mohammedan Dhaka	3	+9	9
3	Fortis	3	+12	7
4	Bashundhara Kings	3	+10	7
5	Abahani	3	+6	7
6	City Club	4	+1	7
7	Rahmatgonj MFS	4	−1	3
8	PWD Sports Club	4	−2	3
9	Arambagh	4	−6	3
10	Fakirerpool	3	−8	3
11	Brothers Union	4	−9	2
12	Chattogram	4	−12	0
13	Dhaka Wanderers	3	−12	0