City Club v Bashundhara Kings prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 12:17

City Club 0–3 Bashundhara Kings BASHUNDHARA KINGS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bashundhara Kings win~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.183

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Bashundhara Kings win at 65%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Bashundhara Kings 65% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 14–17–69
1′KICK-OFF City Club v Bashundhara Kings
4′🟨 YELLOW · 3' Bashundhara Kings
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' City Club
18′SUBSTITUTION · 16' City Club · On: M. Islam · Off: K. Islam
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Bashundhara Kings
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Bashundhara Kings win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
45′HALF-TIME City Club 0–0 Bashundhara Kings
45′SECOND HALF City Club 0–0 Bashundhara Kings
48′We said Bashundhara Kings at 65%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 16–31–53
49′A goal for Bashundhara Kings on 49′. 0–0 · 16–31–53
49′We said Bashundhara Kings at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 0–1 · 3–12–84
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' City Club 0–1 Bashundhara Kings
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Bashundhara Kings win: 65% at kick-off, 84% now
56′Goalless on 56′ when we expected about 3.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 16–29–55 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
57′We said Bashundhara Kings at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 3–13–85
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Bashundhara Kings win: 65% at kick-off, 85% now
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' City Club · On: A. Ali · Off: M. Sayde
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Bashundhara Kings · On: M. S. Hossen · Off: S. Rana
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Bashundhara Kings · On: E. Ogbugh · Off: Caique
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' City Club · On: S. Dost · Off: E. Islam
72′We said Bashundhara Kings at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
72′A goal for Bashundhara Kings on 72′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' City Club 0–2 Bashundhara Kings
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 72' Bashundhara Kings win: 65% at kick-off, 99% now
73′E. Ogbugh scores for Bashundhara Kings on 71′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Bashundhara Kings
81′We said Bashundhara Kings at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Bashundhara Kings · On: Quazem Shah · Off: Robinho Corrected
92′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Bashundhara Kings · On: M. Abdullah · Off: M. Dangi
94′A goal for Bashundhara Kings on 90′. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' City Club 0–3 Bashundhara Kings
FTFULL TIME City Club 0–3 Bashundhara Kings
FTCity Club 0–3 Bashundhara Kings · Bashundhara Kings win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bashundhara Kings are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: City Club 16%, draw 19%, Bashundhara Kings 65%. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on City Club v Bashundhara KingsBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

City Club win16%

Draw19%

Bashundhara Kings win65%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 4

Line-ups

City Club

Bashundhara Kings

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

City Club

Bashundhara Kings

7Days since last match7

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

City Club

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Akond

3 Y. Gurung

34 M. Hossain

4 F. Darboe

19 R. Howleder

17 E. Islam

6 F. Mona

7 M. Sayde

10 K. Solomon

37 K. Islam

9 O. Okafor

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · S. Al-Hasan

25 · SP Rafiz

26 · I. Alam Shakil

23 · K. Marma Aky

27 · M. J. Abeden

21 · A. Ali

8 · A. Asif

2 · M. Noyan

18 · S. Hasan Jummon

12 · S. Dost

11 · M. Islam

39 · S. Shuvo

Bashundhara Kings

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Hasan Srabon

3 A. Molla

28 M. Yousuf Ali

32 R. Chand

15 M. T. Uddin

17 S. Rana

8 M. Ridoy

21 M. Dangi

7 R. Hossain

9 Caique

10 Robinho

Coach · Mario Gomez

Substitutes

22 · P. Hossain

27 · S. Mollah

23 · P. Marandi

24 · I. Sakhawat

18 · N. M. Shimul

2 · S. Tripura

44 · M. S. Hossen

20 · Quazem Shah

50 · C. Roy

11 · M. Abdullah

88 · N. Jibon

6 · E. Ogbugh

Our number · bashundhara kings winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

65% The market–

Us65%

We make Bashundhara Kings a 65% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–2.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 8%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · City Club v Bashundhara Kings~~1.12 – 2.61

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept~~W2 D1 L0 · W1 D1 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bashundhara Kings win

Published at 67%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
City Club win	16%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Bashundhara Kings win	65%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	70%	–	–
Both teams to score	60%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	88%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	50%	–	–
City Club or draw	35%	–	–
City Club clean sheet	10%	–	–
Bashundhara Kings clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 8.5%

0123450 4.3 5.6 7.9 6.6 4.4 2.61 2.2 8.5 8.4 6.7 4.3 2.52 4.3 4.8 3.7 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+City Club down, Bashundhara Kings across0–5 goals a side shown (92.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 686 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

City Club at home: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 1). Bashundhara Kings away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for City Club, 2.61 for Bashundhara Kings. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept

CITY CLUB

WDW3–0 · 3–3 · 2–1

BASHUNDHARA KINGS

DW1–1 · 7–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bashundhara Kings	18	+24	41
2	Abahani	18	+22	37
3	Fortis	18	+18	35
4	Bangladesh Police	18	+4	27
5	Mohammedan Dhaka	18	+7	23
6	Rahmatgonj MFS	18	−4	23
7	Brothers Union	18	−11	17
8	PWD Sports Club	18	−13	17
9	Arambagh	18	−16	14
10	Fakirerpool	18	−31	10