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Brothers Union v Fortis

Brothers Union

0–6Full time

Fortis

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Muktijuddho Sriti Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 12:32

Brothers Union 0–6 Fortis FORTIS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Fortis win~~61%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.235

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.093

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Brothers Union win16%

Draw24%

Fortis win61%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 09:45

Venue · Muktijuddho Sriti Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Brothers Union

Formation not confirmed

55 M. Razib

52 F. Morshed

57 W. Oduwa

11 S. A. Raza

3 S. Sarkar

5 Jonathan Santana

16 S. Regmi

13 M. Sohel Rana

7 A. Uzair

66 M. Hemel

6 J. Bhuyan

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · M. Emon

30 · M. Tasin Saheb

2 · M. Hasibul

4 · N. Khandaker

29 · M. Rahman

39 · A. Haque Shemanto

17 · M. Islam

15 · R. Ashikur

25 · M. Al Mirad

27 · M. Halim

32 · S. Khan

43 · A. Bin Walid Khan

Fortis

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Perera

23 M. Alam

2 R. Hossain

3 M. Mithu Chowdhury

4 E. Jallow

8 A. Bista

10 P. Babou

9 S. Chukwude

19 M. Ibrahim

44 A. Tamang

38 S. Itofusa

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · M. Atick

25 · M. Rabbani

15 · Md Emon Babu Jibon

5 · M. Rahman

24 · S. Sangram

13 · A. Fahad

21 · I. Hossain

17 · S. Rahman

6 · S. Tudu

73 · N. Akada

11 · M. Rony

20 · R. Tudu

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Brothers Union

Formation not confirmed

55 M. Razib

52 F. Morshed

57 W. Oduwa

11 S. A. Raza

3 S. Sarkar

5 Jonathan Santana

16 S. Regmi

13 M. Sohel Rana

7 A. Uzair

66 M. Hemel

6 J. Bhuyan

Coach · –

Substitutes

35 · M. Emon

30 · M. Tasin Saheb

2 · M. Hasibul

4 · N. Khandaker

29 · M. Rahman

39 · A. Haque Shemanto

17 · M. Islam

15 · R. Ashikur

25 · M. Al Mirad

27 · M. Halim

32 · S. Khan

43 · A. Bin Walid Khan

Fortis

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Perera

23 M. Alam

2 R. Hossain

3 M. Mithu Chowdhury

4 E. Jallow

8 A. Bista

10 P. Babou

9 S. Chukwude

19 M. Ibrahim

44 A. Tamang

38 S. Itofusa

Coach · –

Substitutes

30 · M. Atick

25 · M. Rabbani

15 · Md Emon Babu Jibon

5 · M. Rahman

24 · S. Sangram

13 · A. Fahad

21 · I. Hossain

17 · S. Rahman

6 · S. Tudu

73 · N. Akada

11 · M. Rony

20 · R. Tudu

Our number · fortis winPublished 9 Oct 09:46

61% The market76%

Us61%

~~Market~~76%

We make Fortis a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fortis win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 78% to 76% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brothers Union win	16%	8%	+8
Draw	24%	17%	+7
Fortis win	61%	76%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	56%	54%	+2
Both teams to score	52%	35%	+17
Over 1.5 goals	80%	75%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	34%	34%	+1
Brothers Union or draw	39%	24%	+15
Brothers Union clean sheet	14%	–	–
Fortis clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 7.2 9.3 10.5 7.1 3.8 1 3.6 11.0 9.3 6.2 3.2 2 2.4 4.5 4.4 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brothers Union down, Fortis across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 680 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brothers Union at home: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Fortis away: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.93 goals for Brothers Union, 2.03 for Fortis. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~FOR 2–0 BRO · BRO 1–1 FOR · BRO 0–2 FOR · FOR 1–1 BRO

Form · last six in Premier League

BROTHERS UNION

DWLLLD2–2 · 3–1 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 1–1

FORTIS

WWWDWD3–2 · 7–1 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 6–0 · 3–3

The table

2027/28

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bangladesh Police	2	+4	6
2	Fortis	2	+6	4
3	Abahani	2	+4	4
4	City Club	2	+3	4
5	Mohammedan Dhaka	1	+1	3
6	Fakirerpool	2	0	3
7	Arambagh	2	0	2
8	PWD Sports Club	2	0	2
9	Bashundhara Kings	1	0	1
10	Rahmatgonj MFS	2	−1	1
11	Brothers Union	2	−3	1
12	Dhaka Wanderers	2	−5	0
13	Chattogram	2	−9	0