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Model 1.2

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Brothers Union v Abahani

Brothers Union
2–1Full time
Abahani

Premier League · FRI 23 OCT · Muktijuddho Sriti Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 12:31
Brothers Union 2–1 Abahani ABAHANI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Abahani win70%
The market said78%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.314
The market’s Brier score1.493

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Abahani win at 70%.
  2. 1′KICK-OFF Brothers Union v Abahani
  3. 2′Little has changed for our model: Abahani 70% before kick-off, 69% now. 0–0 · 11–20–69
  4. 27′A goal for Brothers Union on 27′. 0–0 · 13–25–63
  5. 27′We said Abahani at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 37%. 1–0 · 37–26–37
  6. 27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Brothers Union 1–0 Abahani
  7. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Abahani win: 70% at kick-off, 37% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 38–27–35
  9. 31′We said Abahani at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–0 · 39–27–34
  10. 31′THE CALL SWINGS · 31' Brothers Union win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Abahani win 63%)
  11. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Abahani win: 70% at kick-off, 30% now
  12. 40′We said Abahani at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–0 · 42–28–29
  13. 45′HALF-TIME Brothers Union 1–0 Abahani
  14. 45′SECOND HALF Brothers Union 1–0 Abahani
  15. 48′We said Abahani at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 46–30–24
  16. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Abahani · On: S. Morsalin · Off: N. H. Faysal
  17. 54′🟨 YELLOW · 54' Abahani
  18. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Abahani win: 70% at kick-off, 20% now
  19. 55′We said Abahani at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 51–30–19
  20. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Brothers Union
  21. 57′We said Abahani at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 13–40–48
  22. 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Brothers Union 1–1 Abahani
  23. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Abahani win: 70% at kick-off, 48% now
  24. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Abahani win is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Brothers Union win 52%)
  25. 58′A goal for Abahani on 58′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 12–40–47
  26. 61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Brothers Union
  27. 61′🟥 RED CARD · 61' Abahani
  28. 62′Brothers Union are down to ten from 62′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 12–44–44
  29. 63′Brothers Union have ten men and Abahani ten after the red cards. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–1 · 12–45–43
  30. 63′We said Abahani at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 1–1 · 12–45–43
  31. 65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Abahani win 45%)
  32. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Abahani win: 70% at kick-off, 40% now
  33. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Abahani · On: M. Chinedu · Off: S. Afolabi
  34. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Abahani · On: M. Rana · Off: S. Hossain
  35. 75′We said Abahani at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 2–1 · 71–24–6
  36. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Abahani win: 70% at kick-off, 29% now
  37. 75′⚽ GOAL · 75' Brothers Union 2–1 Abahani
  38. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Abahani win: 70% at kick-off, 6% now
  39. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Brothers Union win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 62%)
  40. 76′Brothers Union score on 75′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 72–23–5
  41. 77′We said Abahani at 70%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 74–22–4
  42. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Brothers Union · On: M. Halim · Off: M. Hemel
  43. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Brothers Union
  44. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Abahani win: 70% at kick-off, under 1% now
  45. 90′2–1 at the end. Our 70% on Abahani misses, and the record keeps it. 2–1 · 100–0–0
  46. 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Abahani
  47. FTFULL TIME Brothers Union 2–1 Abahani
  48. FTBrothers Union 2–1 Abahani · Abahani win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Abahani are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Brothers Union 11%, draw 19%, Abahani 70%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Brothers Union v AbahaniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Brothers Union win11%
Draw19%
Abahani win70%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 5

VenueMuktijuddho Sriti Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Brothers Union

Abahani

6Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Abahani3+67
11Brothers Union4−92

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · abahani winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
70% The market78%
Us70%
Market78%

We make Abahani a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–2.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Brothers Union v Abahani0.85 – 2.42
Form · Premier League this season · since 18 SeptW0 D2 L2 · W2 D1 L0
Table places · points 2 v 711 v 5
The market · Abahani win78% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
65%70%75%80% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 09:28
Our probability · Abahani win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Brothers Union win11%7%+4
Draw19%16%+3
Abahani win70%78%−8
Over 2.5 goals62%62%0
Both teams to score52%42%+10
Over 1.5 goals84%82%+2
Over 3.5 goals41%41%0
Brothers Union or draw30%22%+8
Brothers Union clean sheet10%––
Abahani clean sheet44%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.9%
0123450 5.5 8.2 10.9 8.7 5.4 2.81 2.2 9.0 8.9 7.0 4.3 2.22 3.4 3.9 3.0 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Brothers Union down, Abahani across0–5 goals a side shown (95.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting3.80
Over 2.57 of 10
Both scored5 of 10
Last meetingsBRO 1–2 ABA · ABA 0–1 BRO · ABA 1–2 BRO · ABA 3–0 BRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept

BROTHERS UNION

LDLD0–3 · 1–1 · 0–6 · 2–2

ABAHANI

DWW0–0 · 5–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bangladesh Police4+1210
2Mohammedan Dhaka3+99
3Fortis3+127
4Bashundhara Kings3+107
5Abahani3+67
6City Club4+17
7Rahmatgonj MFS4−13
8PWD Sports Club4−23
9Arambagh4−63
10Fakirerpool3−83
11Brothers Union4−92
12Chattogram4−120
13Dhaka Wanderers3−120

Based on available league results before kick-off; standings may be incomplete.