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Model 1.1

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Bangladesh Police v Arambagh

Bangladesh Police
1–1Full time
Arambagh

Premier League · SAT 17 OCT · Rafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44
Bangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh BANGLADESH POLICE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bangladesh Police win63%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.973

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bangladesh Police win at 63%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Bangladesh Police was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–25–13
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Bangladesh Police v Arambagh
  4. 30′We published Bangladesh Police at 63%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–11–3
  5. 30′Bangladesh Police find the net on 30′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–3
  6. 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Bangladesh Police 1–0 Arambagh
  7. 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 86% now
  8. 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
  9. 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Arambagh
  10. 45′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 48–39–13
  11. 45′HALF-TIME Bangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh
  12. 48′A goal for Arambagh on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 46–40–13
  13. 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Bangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh
  14. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 46% now
  15. 49′SECOND HALF Bangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh
  16. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 48% now
  17. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 48% now
  18. 52′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–43–13
  19. 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
  20. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
  21. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Bangladesh Police win 41%)
  22. 59′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–49–12
  23. 65′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–55–11
  24. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
  25. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bangladesh Police · On: I. Faysal · Off: A. Rahman
  26. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bangladesh Police · On: M. Islam Moin · Off: M. Bablu
  27. 71′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–62–9
  28. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bangladesh Police · On: H. Arian · Off: M. Mollah
  29. 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Arambagh · On: S. Juel · Off: A. Ahmed
  30. 75′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–68–8
  31. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
  32. 79′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–75–7
  33. 82′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–81–5
  34. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
  35. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Bangladesh Police · On: Marcelo Junior · Off: R. Ba
  36. 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Arambagh
  37. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Bangladesh Police · On: A. Foysal Akash · Off: J. Kumar Roy
  38. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Arambagh · On: S. Juel · Off: A. Ahmed
  39. 86′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–3
  40. 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Bangladesh Police at 63% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  41. 92′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–95–1
  42. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
  43. FTFULL TIME Bangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh
  44. FTBangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh · Bangladesh Police win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bangladesh Police are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Bangladesh Police 63%, draw 25%, Arambagh 13%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Bangladesh Police v ArambaghBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Bangladesh Police win63%
Draw25%
Arambagh win13%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 4

VenueRafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium

Line-ups

Bangladesh Police

Arambagh

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Bangladesh Police

Arambagh

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
4Bangladesh Police18+427
9Arambagh18−1614

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bangladesh Police

Formation not confirmed

23 A. Bhuiyan

27 J. Hossain

34 S. Nirob

77 J. Kumar Roy

33 A. Rahman

7 M. Bablu

14 M. Mollah

8 S. Kagimu

10 Rahul Junior

9 R. Ba

19 J. Ngong Sam

Coach · –

Substitutes

22 · D. Jubed

36 · M. S. Rahman

17 · I. Faysal

3 · M. Miah

98 · Marcelo Junior

15 · S. Ahmed

88 · M. Hossain

55 · M. Al Amin

28 · M. Islam

96 · A. Foysal Akash

80 · H. Arian

18 · M. Islam Moin

Arambagh

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Hossain

2 M. Rocky

13 J. R. Joblu

55 A. Ahmed

5 M. Kiron

4 S. Mohammed

14 S. Joy Tanchangy

15 J. Kumar

28 A. Ahmed

16 S. Rayies

9 S. Osei

Coach · –

Substitutes

25 · A. Al-Mahbub

22 · T. Siddique

27 · M. Fokir

34 · M. Rahman

19 · M. Hossain

8 · S. Rahman

26 · M. Shawon

36 · S. Alam

70 · F. Ahmed

10 · S. Juel

30 · A. Musa

18 · S. Opurbo

Our number · bangladesh police winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
63% The market–
Us63%

We make Bangladesh Police a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Bangladesh Police v Arambagh1.86 – 0.70
Form · Premier League this season · since 18 SeptW3 D0 L0 · W0 D2 L1
Table places · points 27 v 144 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Bangladesh Police win63%––
Draw25%––
Arambagh win13%––
Over 2.5 goals47%––
Both teams to score43%––
Over 1.5 goals73%––
Over 3.5 goals26%––
Bangladesh Police or draw87%––
Bangladesh Police clean sheet51%––
Arambagh clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.1%
0123450 9.9 4.1 2.0 1 13.1 11.2 3.5 2 13.1 8.7 3.1 3 8.1 5.3 4 4.0 2.6 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Bangladesh Police down, Arambagh across0–5 goals a side shown (98.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored1 of 5
Last meetingsBAN 2–0 ARA · ARA 0–3 BAN · ARA 0–1 BAN · BAN 1–0 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept

BANGLADESH POLICE

WWW1–0 · 3–0 · 8–0

ARAMBAGH

DDL1–1 · 2–2 · 0–6

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Bashundhara Kings18+2441
2Abahani18+2237
3Fortis18+1835
4Bangladesh Police18+427
5Mohammedan Dhaka18+723
6Rahmatgonj MFS18−423
7Brothers Union18−1117
8PWD Sports Club18−1317
9Arambagh18−1614
10Fakirerpool18−3110

The competition's standings before kick-off.