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Bangladesh Police v Arambagh
Bangladesh Police
ArambaghPremier League · SAT 17 OCT · Rafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Bangladesh Police win at 63%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Bangladesh Police was 63% before kick-off and our model makes it 62% now. 0–0 · 62–25–13
- 1′KICK-OFF Bangladesh Police v Arambagh
- 30′We published Bangladesh Police at 63%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–11–3
- 30′Bangladesh Police find the net on 30′. 1–0. 1–0 · 86–11–3
- 30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Bangladesh Police 1–0 Arambagh
- 30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 86% now
- 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 86–11–3
- 37′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Arambagh
- 45′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 1–1 · 48–39–13
- 45′HALF-TIME Bangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh
- 48′A goal for Arambagh on 45′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 46–40–13
- 48′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Bangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 46% now
- 49′SECOND HALF Bangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 48% now
- 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 48% now
- 52′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–43–13
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
- 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 43% now
- 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Bangladesh Police win 41%)
- 59′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 39–49–12
- 65′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–55–11
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 33% now
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bangladesh Police · On: I. Faysal · Off: A. Rahman
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bangladesh Police · On: M. Islam Moin · Off: M. Bablu
- 71′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–62–9
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Bangladesh Police · On: H. Arian · Off: M. Mollah
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Arambagh · On: S. Juel · Off: A. Ahmed
- 75′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–68–8
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 23% now
- 79′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–75–7
- 82′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–81–5
- 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 13% now
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Bangladesh Police · On: Marcelo Junior · Off: R. Ba
- 84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Arambagh
- 84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Bangladesh Police · On: A. Foysal Akash · Off: J. Kumar Roy
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Arambagh · On: S. Juel · Off: A. Ahmed
- 86′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–87–3
- 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Bangladesh Police at 63% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
- 92′We said Bangladesh Police at 63%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–95–1
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Bangladesh Police win: 63% at kick-off, 3% now
- FTFULL TIME Bangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh
- FTBangladesh Police 1–1 Arambagh · Bangladesh Police win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassBangladesh Police are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Bangladesh Police 63%, draw 25%, Arambagh 13%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 43%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Bangladesh Police win63%
Arambagh win13%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:45
RoundMatchday 4
VenueRafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium
Match timeline
All events
Bangladesh PoliceMIN
ArambaghEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Bangladesh Police
Arambagh
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Bangladesh Police
Arambagh
Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)
Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Bangladesh Police
Formation not confirmed
23 A. Bhuiyan
27 J. Hossain
34 S. Nirob
77 J. Kumar Roy
33 A. Rahman
7 M. Bablu
14 M. Mollah
8 S. Kagimu
10 Rahul Junior
9 R. Ba
19 J. Ngong Sam
Coach · –
Substitutes
22 · D. Jubed
36 · M. S. Rahman
17 · I. Faysal
3 · M. Miah
98 · Marcelo Junior
15 · S. Ahmed
88 · M. Hossain
55 · M. Al Amin
28 · M. Islam
96 · A. Foysal Akash
80 · H. Arian
18 · M. Islam Moin
Arambagh
Formation not confirmed
1 A. Hossain
2 M. Rocky
13 J. R. Joblu
55 A. Ahmed
5 M. Kiron
4 S. Mohammed
14 S. Joy Tanchangy
15 J. Kumar
28 A. Ahmed
16 S. Rayies
9 S. Osei
Coach · –
Substitutes
25 · A. Al-Mahbub
22 · T. Siddique
27 · M. Fokir
34 · M. Rahman
19 · M. Hossain
8 · S. Rahman
26 · M. Shawon
36 · S. Alam
70 · F. Ahmed
10 · S. Juel
30 · A. Musa
18 · S. Opurbo
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Bangladesh Police
Formation not confirmed
23 A. Bhuiyan
27 J. Hossain
34 S. Nirob
77 J. Kumar Roy
33 A. Rahman
7 M. Bablu
14 M. Mollah
8 S. Kagimu
10 Rahul Junior
9 R. Ba
19 J. Ngong Sam
Coach · –
Substitutes
22 · D. Jubed
36 · M. S. Rahman
17 · I. Faysal
3 · M. Miah
98 · Marcelo Junior
15 · S. Ahmed
88 · M. Hossain
55 · M. Al Amin
28 · M. Islam
96 · A. Foysal Akash
80 · H. Arian
18 · M. Islam Moin
Arambagh
Formation not confirmed
1 A. Hossain
2 M. Rocky
13 J. R. Joblu
55 A. Ahmed
5 M. Kiron
4 S. Mohammed
14 S. Joy Tanchangy
15 J. Kumar
28 A. Ahmed
16 S. Rayies
9 S. Osei
Coach · –
Substitutes
25 · A. Al-Mahbub
22 · T. Siddique
27 · M. Fokir
34 · M. Rahman
19 · M. Hossain
8 · S. Rahman
26 · M. Shawon
36 · S. Alam
70 · F. Ahmed
10 · S. Juel
30 · A. Musa
18 · S. Opurbo
We make Bangladesh Police a 63% chance to win. The model expects 1.9–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh Police win | 63% | – | – |
| Draw | 25% | – | – |
| Arambagh win | 13% | – | – |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | – | – |
| Both teams to score | 43% | – | – |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | – | – |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | – | – |
| Bangladesh Police or draw | 87% | – | – |
| Bangladesh Police clean sheet | 51% | – | – |
| Arambagh clean sheet | 17% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept
BANGLADESH POLICE
ARAMBAGH
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bashundhara Kings | 18 | +24 | 41 |
| 2 | Abahani | 18 | +22 | 37 |
| 3 | Fortis | 18 | +18 | 35 |
| 4 | Bangladesh Police | 18 | +4 | 27 |
| 5 | Mohammedan Dhaka | 18 | +7 | 23 |
| 6 | Rahmatgonj MFS | 18 | −4 | 23 |
| 7 | Brothers Union | 18 | −11 | 17 |
| 8 | PWD Sports Club | 18 | −13 | 17 |
| 9 | Arambagh | 18 | −16 | 14 |
| 10 | Fakirerpool | 18 | −31 | 10 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
Bashundhara Kings
Abahani
Fortis
Mohammedan Dhaka
Rahmatgonj MFS
Brothers Union
PWD Sports Club
Fakirerpool