Arambagh v City Club prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 12:41

Arambagh 0–4 City Club CITY CLUB WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said City Club win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.483

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said City Club win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: City Club 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 29–28–43
1′KICK-OFF Arambagh v City Club
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' City Club
37′A goal for City Club on 36′. 0–0 · 27–35–38
37′We said City Club at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 9–18–73
37′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 0–1 · 9–18–73
37′SUBSTITUTION · 35' City Club · On: A. Ali · Off: O. Rahman
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Arambagh 0–1 City Club
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' City Club win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
38′We said City Club at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 0–2 · 2–6–92
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Arambagh 0–2 City Club
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' City Club win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
39′City Club find the net on 38′. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
40′City Club ahead on 40′ through O. Okafor. 0–2. 0–2 · 2–6–92
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Arambagh
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' City Club win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Arambagh 0–2 City Club
45′SECOND HALF Arambagh 0–2 City Club
50′SUBSTITUTION · 46' City Club · On: M. J. Abeden · Off: R. Howleder
55′We said City Club at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–2 · 1–4–95
67′🟥 RED CARD · 67' Arambagh
68′Arambagh are down to ten from 68′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–2 · 0–3–97
68′🟨 YELLOW · 68' City Club
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Arambagh
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' City Club · On: S. Dost · Off: M. Islam
77′We said City Club at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′3 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Arambagh 0–3 City Club
78′A goal for City Club on 78′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
84′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Arambagh 0–4 City Club
85′City Club score on 84′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' City Club · On: S. Hasan Jummon · Off: E. Islam
85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' City Club · On: I. Alam Shakil · Off: F. Darboe
FTFULL TIME Arambagh 0–4 City Club
FTArambagh 0–4 City Club · City Club win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

City Club are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arambagh 29%, draw 28%, City Club 43%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Arambagh v City ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arambagh win29%

Draw28%

City Club win43%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arambagh

City Club

4Days since last match4

Last match: 20 Oct · Federation Cup (Bangladesh)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	City Club	4	+1	7
10	Arambagh	4	−6	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · city club winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make City Club a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arambagh v City Club~~1.26 – 1.59

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept~~W0 D3 L1 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 7~~10 v 6

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arambagh win	29%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
City Club win	43%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Arambagh or draw	57%	–	–
Arambagh clean sheet	22%	–	–
City Club clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.3 7.7 7.3 3.9 1 5.8 12.8 8.6 4.6 2 4.7 6.9 5.4 2.9 3 2.0 3.0 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arambagh down, City Club across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 693 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Arambagh at home: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). City Club away: 3.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Arambagh, 1.59 for City Club. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept

ARAMBAGH

DDLD1–1 · 2–2 · 0–6 · 1–1

CITY CLUB

WDWL3–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bangladesh Police	4	+12	10
2	Mohammedan Dhaka	3	+9	9
3	Fortis	3	+12	7
4	Bashundhara Kings	3	+10	7
5	Abahani	4	+5	7
6	City Club	4	+1	7
7	Rahmatgonj MFS	5	0	6
8	Brothers Union	5	−8	5
9	PWD Sports Club	4	−2	3
10	Arambagh	4	−6	3
11	Fakirerpool	4	−9	3
12	Chattogram	4	−12	0
13	Dhaka Wanderers	3	−12	0