Abahani v Chattogram prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 12:44

Abahani 3–1 Chattogram ABAHANI WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Abahani win~~81%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.057

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Abahani win at 81%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Abahani 81% before kick-off, 81% now. 0–0 · 81–13–6
1′KICK-OFF Abahani v Chattogram
6′We said Abahani at 81% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 94%. 1–0 · 94–4–2
6′Abahani score on 6′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 94–4–2
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Abahani 1–0 Chattogram
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Abahani win: 81% at kick-off, 94% now
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Abahani
28′SUBSTITUTION · 27' Chattogram · On: S. Hossain Sayem · Off: M. Ullah
30′The goal count is tracking the 4.0 we expected. 1–0 · 92–6–2
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Abahani
44′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Abahani
45′HALF-TIME Abahani 2–0 Chattogram
45′SECOND HALF Abahani 2–0 Chattogram
46′Abahani find the net on 45′. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–1–0
46′We said Abahani at 81% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–1–0
46′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Abahani 2–0 Chattogram
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chattogram · On: R. Onwrebe · Off: K. Hara
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chattogram · On: S. Jahan · Off: M. Bappi Hasan
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Chattogram · On: N. Chakma · Off: R. I. Dukhu Mia
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Abahani · On: S. Morsalin · Off: M. Al Amin Corrected
55′We said Abahani at 81% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Abahani 3–0 Chattogram
56′A goal for Abahani on 55′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Abahani · On: S. Morsalin · Off: P. Singh
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Abahani · On: M. Asadul Molla · Off: M. Al Amin
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Abahani · On: S. Hossain · Off: M. Rana
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Chattogram
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Abahani · On: S. Hossain · Off: R. Hasan
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Abahani · On: M. Chinedu · Off: S. Afolabi
90′3–1 at the end. Our 81% on Abahani comes in. 3–1 · 100–0–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Chattogram · On: T. Das · Off: K. Barua
92′🟨 YELLOW · 43' A. Omar · Abahani
93′Chattogram find the net on 90′. 3–0 · 100–0–0 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
93′That is 4, and we only asked for 4.0 across ninety minutes. 3–1 · 100–0–0
93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Abahani 3–1 Chattogram
FTFULL TIME Abahani 3–1 Chattogram
FTAbahani 3–1 Chattogram · Abahani win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Abahani are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Abahani 81%, draw 13%, Chattogram 6%. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Abahani v ChattogramBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Abahani win81%

Draw13%

Chattogram win6%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 09:45

RoundMatchday 4

VenueSheikh Fazlul Haque Mani Stadium

Line-ups

Abahani

Chattogram

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Abahani

Chattogram

14Days since last match4

Last match: 3 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

Last match: 13 Oct · Federation Cup (Bangladesh)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Abahani	18	+22	37

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Abahani

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Pritom

4 Y. Khan

25 M. Rana

14 A. Omar

33 S. Afolabi

15 R. Hasan

12 M. Babatunde

6 P. Singh

77 M. Ahmed

99 A. Okachi

9 M. Al Amin

Coach · –

Substitutes

20 · A. Ali

11 · M. Chinedu

31 · R. Chowdury

16 · I. Hossain

5 · S. Hossain

13 · K. Islam

30 · M. Marma

17 · M. Asadul Molla

10 · S. Morsalin

8 · S. Hossain

Chattogram

Formation not confirmed

22 M. Bappi Hasan

21 S. Ahmed

44 R. I. Dukhu Mia

5 D. Chaudhary

6 D. Kofi

8 K. Barua

98 M. Kahraba

16 S. Islam

11 J. Iqbal

27 M. Ullah

7 K. Hara

Coach · –

Substitutes

26 · M. Khorshed Alam

45 · A. J. Ataul

15 · N. Chakma

23 · T. Das

18 · R. Hossain

24 · S. Hossain Sayem

13 · S. Jahan

9 · R. Onwrebe

80 · S. Karim

19 · A. Saymon

14 · A. Sonam

77 · B. Uddin

30 · I. Farhad

Our number · abahani winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

81% The market–

Us81%

We make Abahani an 81% chance to win. The model expects 3.3–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Abahani v Chattogram~~3.26 – 0.71

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept~~W1 D1 L0 · W0 D0 L3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Abahani win	81%	–	–
Draw	13%	–	–
Chattogram win	6%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	72%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	89%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	53%	–	–
Abahani or draw	94%	–	–
Abahani clean sheet	51%	–	–
Chattogram clean sheet	6%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.9%

0123450 3.5 1 6.2 6.0 2.1 2 9.9 7.0 2.7 3 9.8 6.6 2.5 4 7.8 4.9 5 5.4 3.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Abahani down, Chattogram across0–5 goals a side shown (86.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 688 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2026/27 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Abahani at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Chattogram away: 0.50 scored, 4.00 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

3.26 goals for Abahani, 0.71 for Chattogram. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026/27

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ABA 1–1 CHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 18 Sept

ABAHANI

DW0–0 · 5–1

CHATTOGRAM

LLL0–6 · 0–3 · 1–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bashundhara Kings	18	+24	41
2	Abahani	18	+22	37
3	Fortis	18	+18	35
4	Bangladesh Police	18	+4	27
5	Mohammedan Dhaka	18	+7	23
6	Rahmatgonj MFS	18	−4	23
7	Brothers Union	18	−11	17
8	PWD Sports Club	18	−13	17
9	Arambagh	18	−16	14
10	Fakirerpool	18	−31	10