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Mohammedan Dhaka v PWD Sports Club

Mohammedan Dhaka
1–1Full time
PWD Sports Club

Federation Cup · TUE 20 OCT · Rafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 12:30
Mohammedan Dhaka 1–1 PWD Sports Club MOHAMMEDAN DHAKA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Mohammedan Dhaka win65%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.025

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 16 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Mohammedan Dhaka win at 65%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Mohammedan Dhaka was 65% before kick-off and our model makes it 65% now. 0–0 · 65–23–12
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Mohammedan Dhaka v PWD Sports Club
  4. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 65% at kick-off, 55% now
  5. 39′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 53%. 0–0 · 53–34–13
  6. 45′HALF-TIME Mohammedan Dhaka 0–0 PWD Sports Club
  7. 45′SECOND HALF Mohammedan Dhaka 0–0 PWD Sports Club
  8. 47′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–38–13
  9. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 65% at kick-off, 45% now
  10. 55′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–43–12
  11. 56′We expected about 2.7 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 44–44–12
  12. 59′THE CALL SWINGS · 59' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Mohammedan Dhaka win 44%)
  13. 61′Mohammedan Dhaka score on 61′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 88–10–1
  14. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Mohammedan Dhaka 1–0 PWD Sports Club
  15. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 65% at kick-off, 88% now
  16. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Mohammedan Dhaka win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 49%)
  17. 62′We published Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. Our model now makes it 89%. 1–0 · 89–10–1
  18. 69′We published Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
  19. 72′PWD Sports Club find the net on 72′. 1–1. 1–1 · 29–62–9
  20. 72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Mohammedan Dhaka 1–1 PWD Sports Club
  21. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 65% at kick-off, 29% now
  22. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Mohammedan Dhaka win 91%)
  23. 74′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 27–65–9
  24. 74′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–1 · 27–65–9
  25. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 65% at kick-off, 25% now
  26. 76′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–68–8
  27. 80′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 1–1 · 18–75–6
  28. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 65% at kick-off, 15% now
  29. 83′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–82–5
  30. 87′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–88–3
  31. 90′Full time, 1–1. We called Mohammedan Dhaka at 65% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
  32. 91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' Mohammedan Dhaka win: 65% at kick-off, 5% now
  33. 92′We said Mohammedan Dhaka at 65%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  34. FTFULL TIME Mohammedan Dhaka 1–1 PWD Sports Club
  35. FTMohammedan Dhaka 1–1 PWD Sports Club · Mohammedan Dhaka win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mohammedan Dhaka are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mohammedan Dhaka 65%, draw 23%, PWD Sports Club 12%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Mohammedan Dhaka v PWD Sports ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Mohammedan Dhaka win65%
Draw23%
PWD Sports Club win12%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 09:45

RoundGroup stage

VenueRafiq Uddin Bhuiyan Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mohammedan Dhaka

PWD Sports Club

4Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mohammedan dhaka winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 17 Oct 00:18 · locked at kick-off
65% The market–
Us65%

We make Mohammedan Dhaka a 65% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–0.7, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Mohammedan Dhaka v PWD Sports Club2.00 – 0.72

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%65%70% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 09:43
Our probability · Mohammedan Dhaka win

Published at 64%, 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Mohammedan Dhaka win65%––
Draw23%––
PWD Sports Club win12%––
Over 2.5 goals51%––
Both teams to score45%––
Over 1.5 goals76%––
Over 3.5 goals29%––
Mohammedan Dhaka or draw88%––
Mohammedan Dhaka clean sheet49%––
PWD Sports Club clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 12.9%
0123450 8.6 3.5 1 11.9 10.7 3.5 2 12.9 8.9 3.3 3 8.6 5.9 2.2 4 4.5 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Mohammedan Dhaka down, PWD Sports Club across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsPWD 0–2 MOH · PWD 1–3 MOH · MOH 4–0 PWD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Federation Cup this season · since 6 Oct

MOHAMMEDAN DHAKA

W3–1

PWD SPORTS CLUB

No matches in our record yet.