Brothers Union v Fakirerpool prediction · Federation Cup

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 12:31

Brothers Union 4–1 Fakirerpool BROTHERS UNION WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brothers Union win~~55%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.306

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.385

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brothers Union win at 55%.
1′Much as we predicted: Brothers Union was 55% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–21–23
1′KICK-OFF Brothers Union v Fakirerpool
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Brothers Union 0–1 Fakirerpool
21′S. Sillah scores for Fakirerpool on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 28–24–47
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Brothers Union win: 55% at kick-off, 28% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Fakirerpool win is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Brothers Union win 28%)
45′HALF-TIME Brothers Union 0–1 Fakirerpool
46′SECOND HALF Brothers Union 0–1 Fakirerpool
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Brothers Union 1–1 Fakirerpool
64′⚽ GOAL · 63' Brothers Union 2–1 Fakirerpool
79′⚽ GOAL · 78' Brothers Union 3–1 Fakirerpool
80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Brothers Union 4–1 Fakirerpool
FTFULL TIME Brothers Union 4–1 Fakirerpool
FTBrothers Union 4–1 Fakirerpool · Brothers Union win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 09:03 · locked at kick-off

Brothers Union win55%

Draw23%

Fakirerpool win22%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 09:45

VenueMuktijuddho Sriti Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Brothers Union

Fakirerpool

20Days since last match21

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Fakirerpool	1	0	1
9	Brothers Union	1	0	1

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · brothers union winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 09:03 · locked at kick-off

55% The market49%

Us55%

~~Market~~49%

We make Brothers Union a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · brothers union win The market, margin stripped

Published at 52%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brothers Union win	55%	49%	+6
Draw	23%	24%	−1
Fakirerpool win	22%	27%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	66%	63%	+3
Both teams to score	64%	63%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	45%	44%	+1
Brothers Union or draw	78%	73%	+5
Brothers Union clean sheet	28%	–	–
Fakirerpool clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.9 3.0 2.8 1 5.7 10.1 5.7 2.5 2 7.2 9.1 5.9 2.6 3 5.1 6.4 4.2 4 2.8 3.5 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brothers Union down, Fakirerpool across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 686 Premier League matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brothers Union at home: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded a game (last 6). Fakirerpool away: 0.33 scored, 3.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.15 goals for Brothers Union, 1.31 for Fakirerpool. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FAK 0–2 BRO · BRO 2–0 FAK · FAK 1–4 BRO · BRO 3–0 FAK

Form · last six in Federation Cup

BROTHERS UNION

WLLLDL3–1 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 0–6

FAKIRERPOOL

LLLWLL1–7 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–8

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Bashundhara Kings	1	+5	3
2	Mohammedan Dhaka	1	+2	3
3	Abahani	1	0	1
4	Bangladesh Police	1	0	1
5	Chattogram	1	0	1
6	City Club	1	0	1
7	Fakirerpool	1	0	1
8	Fortis	1	0	1
9	Brothers Union	1	0	1
10	Rahmatgonj MFS	1	0	1
11	Arambagh	1	−2	0
12	Dhaka Wanderers	1	−5	0