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Model 1.2

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Arambagh v Dhaka Wanderers

Arambagh
2–2Full time
Dhaka Wanderers

Federation Cup · TUE 20 OCT

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 14:30
Arambagh 2–2 Dhaka Wanderers ARAMBAGH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Arambagh win54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.903

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arambagh are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arambagh 54%, draw 25%, Dhaka Wanderers 21%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Arambagh v Dhaka WanderersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Arambagh win54%
Draw25%
Dhaka Wanderers win21%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 09:45

RoundGroup stage

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arambagh

Dhaka Wanderers

3Days since last match11

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Bangladesh)

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arambagh winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · updated 18 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off
54% The market–
Us54%

We make Arambagh a 54% chance to win. The model expects 2.0–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Arambagh v Dhaka Wanderers1.97 – 1.15
Form · Federation Cup this season · since 6 OctW0 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 09:43
Our probability · Arambagh win

Published at 53%, 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Arambagh win54%––
Draw25%––
Dhaka Wanderers win21%––
Over 2.5 goals59%––
Both teams to score58%––
Over 1.5 goals82%––
Over 3.5 goals38%––
Arambagh or draw79%––
Arambagh clean sheet33%––
Dhaka Wanderers clean sheet15%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%
0123450 6.6 3.9 3.1 1 7.4 11.2 5.6 2.3 2 8.4 9.1 5.3 2.1 3 5.5 5.9 3.4 4 2.8 3.0 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Arambagh down, Dhaka Wanderers across0–5 goals a side shown (97.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Federation Cup this season · since 6 Oct

ARAMBAGH

L1–3

DHAKA WANDERERS

L0–5