Sitra v Al Riffa prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 22 Oct 20:00

Sitra 2–3 Al Riffa AL RIFFA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Riffa win~~54%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.322

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.234

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Riffa win at 54%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Riffa 54% before kick-off, 54% now. 0–0 · 21–26–54
1′KICK-OFF Sitra v Al Riffa
13′A goal for Sitra on 12′. 0–0 · 21–28–51
13′We said Al Riffa at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–0 · 49–25–26
13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Sitra 1–0 Al Riffa
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Al Riffa win: 54% at kick-off, 26% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Sitra win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Al Riffa win 51%)
18′We said Al Riffa at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 50–26–24
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Al Riffa win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 53–27–20
32′We said Al Riffa at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 54–27–19
41′Al Riffa find the net on 41′. 1–0 · 57–27–16
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Sitra 1–1 Al Riffa
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Al Riffa win: 54% at kick-off, 43% now
41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Al Riffa win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Sitra win 57%)
43′We said Al Riffa at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 42%. 1–1 · 19–38–42
45′HALF-TIME Sitra 1–1 Al Riffa
45′SECOND HALF Sitra 1–1 Al Riffa
50′We said Al Riffa at 54%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 1–1 · 18–42–39
52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Al Riffa win 41%)
57′A goal for Al Riffa on 57′. 1–1 · 17–48–35
58′We said Al Riffa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–2 · 3–14–83
58′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–14–83
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Sitra 1–2 Al Riffa
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Al Riffa win: 54% at kick-off, 83% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Al Riffa win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 48%)
60′Al Riffa find the net on 60′. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Al Riffa win: 54% at kick-off, 84% now
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Sitra 1–3 Al Riffa
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Al Riffa win: 54% at kick-off, 98% now
61′We said Al Riffa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 1–3 · 0–2–98
61′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
79′We said Al Riffa at 54% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′A goal for Sitra on 88′. 1–3 · 0–0–100
88′5 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 0–4–96
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Sitra 2–3 Al Riffa
FTFULL TIME Sitra 2–3 Al Riffa
FTSitra 2–3 Al Riffa · Al Riffa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Riffa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sitra 21%, draw 25%, Al Riffa 54%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Sitra v Al RiffaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Sitra win21%

Draw25%

Al Riffa win54%

Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sitra

Al Riffa

6Days since last match5

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al riffa winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · updated 18 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

54% The market61%

Us54%

~~Market~~61%

We make Al Riffa a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sitra v Al Riffa~~0.92 – 1.65

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 27 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W3 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 11~~5 v 1

~~The market · Al Riffa win~~61% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Riffa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 53%, 54% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sitra win	21%	15%	+6
Draw	25%	24%	+1
Al Riffa win	54%	61%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	47%	48%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	46%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	71%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	26%	29%	−3
Sitra or draw	46%	39%	+7
Sitra clean sheet	20%	–	–
Al Riffa clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.1%

0123450 8.6 12.1 10.3 5.7 2.5 1 6.6 11.9 9.2 5.1 2.2 2 3.3 5.3 4.3 2.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sitra down, Al Riffa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 678 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 46.7% of games this season, across 30 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sitra at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Riffa away: 2.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Sitra, 1.65 for Al Riffa. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SIT 1–3 ALR · ALR 3–0 SIT · SIT 1–1 ALR · ALR 1–2 SIT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 27 Aug

SITRA

WDDLW3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 2–0

AL RIFFA

WWDDW2–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Riffa	5	+10	11
2	Khalidiya	5	+8	11
3	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	5	+2	10
4	Muharraq	5	+4	8
5	Sitra	5	+3	8
6	Al Ahli	5	0	7
7	Al Najma	5	−3	7
8	East Riffa	5	−4	7
9	Al-Hidd	5	0	5
10	A'Ali	5	−4	4
11	Manama	5	−8	2
12	Malkiya	5	−8	1