Sitra v Al Najma prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Sitra 0–2 Al Najma SITRA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sitra win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.755

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.778

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sitra win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sitra 44% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 45–25–30
2′Little has changed for our model: Sitra 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
22′A goal for Al Najma on 6′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 41–30–29
23′A goal for Al Najma on 6′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 41–30–29
42′A goal for Al Najma on 42′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 12–24–63
45′We said Sitra at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 11%. 0–1 · 11–24–64
47′A goal for Al Najma on 42′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–24–65
48′We said Sitra at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 10%. 0–1 · 10–24–65
68′Sitra are down to ten from 66′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–1 · 4–20–76
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
77′⚽ GOAL · 78' Sitra 0–1 Al Najma
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Sitra 0–2 Al Najma
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
84′78′ and it is 0–2: Al Najma have scored. 0–2 · 0–0–100
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 10% now
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sitra win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
93′78′ and it is 0–2: Al Najma have scored. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Sitra 0–2 Al Najma
FTSitra 0–2 Al Najma · Sitra win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Sitra win44%

Draw26%

Al Najma win30%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Sitra

Al Najma

29Days since last match30

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Sitra	3	+3	5
10	Al Najma	3	−5	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sitra winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Sitra a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · sitra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sitra win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	26%	28%	−2
Al Najma win	30%	28%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	51%	46%	+5
Both teams to score	55%	51%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	76%	70%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	30%	25%	+4
Sitra or draw	70%	72%	−1
Sitra clean sheet	30%	–	–
Al Najma clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.2%

0123450 7.4 7.4 4.8 1 9.4 12.2 7.0 2.9 2 7.5 8.8 5.3 2.2 3 3.9 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sitra down, Al Najma across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 670 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sitra at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Najma away: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.53 goals for Sitra, 1.21 for Al Najma. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALN 2–0 SIT · SIT 0–0 ALN · ALN 1–1 SIT · SIT 0–0 ALN

Form · last six in Premier League

SITRA

LWWWDD0–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

AL NAJMA

WWWLWL2–1 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 2–7 · 1–0 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	4	+2	9
2	Khalidiya	4	+7	8
3	Al Riffa	4	+6	8
4	Al Ahli	4	+1	7
5	Sitra	3	+3	5
6	Muharraq	4	+1	5
7	Al-Hidd	4	0	4
8	A'Ali	3	−1	4
9	East Riffa	3	−1	4
10	Al Najma	3	−5	3
11	Malkiya	4	−5	1
12	Manama	4	−8	1