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Muharraq v Malkiya

Muharraq
3–0Full time
Malkiya

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 19:31
Muharraq 3–0 Malkiya MUHARRAQ WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Muharraq win58%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.274

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Muharraq win at 58%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Muharraq 58% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–27–16
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Muharraq v Malkiya
  4. 14′A goal for Muharraq on 13′. 0–0 · 54–30–16
  5. 14′We said Muharraq at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  6. 14′⚽ GOAL · 13' Muharraq 1–0 Malkiya
  7. 14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Muharraq win: 58% at kick-off, 84% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–3
  9. 36′We said Muharraq at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–3
  10. 38′Muharraq find the net on 38′. 1–0 · 85–13–3
  11. 41′GOAL DISALLOWED · 38' Muharraq
  12. 45′Muharraq score on 44′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  13. 45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Muharraq 2–0 Malkiya
  14. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Muharraq win: 58% at kick-off, 98% now
  15. 46′We said Muharraq at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  16. 60′A goal for Muharraq on 60′. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  17. 60′We said Muharraq at 58% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  18. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Muharraq 3–0 Malkiya
  19. 61′3 goals already, more than the 2.2 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  20. 61′GOAL DISALLOWED · 61' Muharraq
  21. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Muharraq 3–0 Malkiya
  22. 90′3–0 at the end. Our 58% on Muharraq comes in. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  23. FTFULL TIME Muharraq 3–0 Malkiya
  24. FTMuharraq 3–0 Malkiya · Muharraq win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muharraq are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Muharraq 58%, draw 26%, Malkiya 16%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Muharraq v MalkiyaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Muharraq win58%
Draw26%
Malkiya win16%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Muharraq

Malkiya

4Days since last match9

Last match: 14 Oct · AFC Champions League Two

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Muharraq4+15
12Malkiya4−51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muharraq winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
58% The market–
Us58%

We make Muharraq a 58% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Muharraq v Malkiya1.55 – 0.67
Form · Premier League this season · since 27 AugW1 D2 L1 · W0 D1 L3
Table places · points 5 v 18 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Muharraq win58%––
Draw26%––
Malkiya win16%––
Over 2.5 goals38%––
Both teams to score38%––
Over 1.5 goals65%––
Over 3.5 goals19%––
Muharraq or draw84%––
Muharraq clean sheet52%––
Malkiya clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.3%
0123450 11.8 6.9 2.5 1 16.3 11.4 3.8 2 12.9 8.3 2.9 3 6.7 4.3 4 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Muharraq down, Malkiya across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.00
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored2 of 4
Last meetingsMAL 0–1 MUH · MUH 1–1 MAL · MUH 3–0 MAL · MAL 1–1 MUH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 27 Aug

MUHARRAQ

DLWD1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–2

MALKIYA

LLLD0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al Riffa5+1011
2Al Ittifaq Maqaba5+210
3Khalidiya4+78
4Sitra5+38
5Al Ahli4+17
6Al Najma5−37
7East Riffa5−47
8Muharraq4+15
9Al-Hidd505
10A'Ali5−44
11Manama5−82
12Malkiya4−51

The competition's standings before kick-off.