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Malkiya v Al Riffa

Malkiya
1–1Full time
Al Riffa

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31
Malkiya 1–1 Al Riffa AL RIFFA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Riffa win53%
The market said70%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.852
The market’s Brier score1.151

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 4 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Riffa win at 53%.
  2. 69′SECOND HALF Malkiya 0–1 Al Riffa
  3. 94′⚽ GOAL · 1' Malkiya 0–1 Al Riffa · D. Georgijevic
  4. 99′⚽ GOAL · 100' Malkiya 1–1 Al Riffa
  5. FTFULL TIME Malkiya 1–1 Al Riffa
  6. FTMalkiya 1–1 Al Riffa · Al Riffa win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Malkiya win20%
Draw27%
Al Riffa win53%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al riffa winPublished 9 Oct 17:06
53% The market70%
Us53%
Market70%

We make Al Riffa a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 70%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70%75% 9 OCT 06:179 OCT 14:06
Our probability · al riffa win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 69% to 70% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Malkiya win20%11%+9
Draw27%19%+8
Al Riffa win53%70%−17
Over 2.5 goals41%58%−17
Both teams to score43%47%−5
Over 1.5 goals67%78%−11
Over 3.5 goals21%37%−16
Malkiya or draw47%30%+17
Malkiya clean sheet23%––
Al Riffa clean sheet45%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.4%
0123450 10.9 14.4 11.1 5.7 2.3 1 7.5 12.2 8.7 4.4 2 3.3 4.7 3.5 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Malkiya down, Al Riffa across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsMAL 0–2 ALR · ALR 2–0 MAL · MAL 2–2 ALR · ALR 0–2 MAL

Form · last six in Premier League

MALKIYA

WLLLLL4–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–1

AL RIFFA

WWWWWD4–0 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Khalidiya3+77
2Al Riffa3+67
3Al Ittifaq Maqaba3+16
4Sitra3+35
5Muharraq3+14
6Al-Hidd3+14
7A'Ali3−14
8East Riffa3−14
9Al Ahli3−14
10Al Najma3−53
11Manama3−61
12Malkiya3−50

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.