East Riffa v Muharraq prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:02

East Riffa 0–1 Muharraq MUHARRAQ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Muharraq win~~66%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.179

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.216

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 9 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Muharraq win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Muharraq 66% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 13–22–66
1′KICK-OFF East Riffa v Muharraq
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Muharraq win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
37′We said Muharraq at 66%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 14–32–54
41′A goal for Muharraq on 40′. 0–0 · 13–34–52
42′We said Muharraq at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–1 · 2–11–87
42′⚽ GOAL · 40' East Riffa 0–1 Muharraq
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Muharraq win: 66% at kick-off, 87% now
43′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 2–11–87
45′HALF-TIME East Riffa 0–1 Muharraq
46′SECOND HALF East Riffa 0–1 Muharraq
48′PENALTY MISSED · 45+2' Muharraq
68′We said Muharraq at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
82′We said Muharraq at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Muharraq win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
FTFULL TIME East Riffa 0–1 Muharraq
FTEast Riffa 0–1 Muharraq · Muharraq win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Muharraq are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: East Riffa 13%, draw 21%, Muharraq 66%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on East Riffa v MuharraqBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

East Riffa win13%

Draw21%

Muharraq win66%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:30

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

East Riffa

Muharraq

6Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Muharraq	5	+4	8
9	East Riffa	5	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · muharraq winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · updated 19 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off

66% The market62%

Us66%

~~Market~~62%

We make Muharraq a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–2.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · East Riffa v Muharraq~~0.72 – 1.98

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~9 v 4

~~The market · Muharraq win~~62% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Muharraq win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 66% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
East Riffa win	13%	15%	−2
Draw	21%	23%	−2
Muharraq win	66%	62%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	50%	51%	−1
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	75%	74%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	29%	31%	−2
East Riffa or draw	34%	38%	−4
East Riffa clean sheet	15%	–	–
Muharraq clean sheet	49%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.0%

0123450 7.7 13.0 12.9 8.5 4.3 1 4.6 9.8 9.0 5.9 3.0 2 3.5 3.3 2.2 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+East Riffa down, Muharraq across0–5 goals a side shown (98.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 680 Premier League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

East Riffa at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Muharraq away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.72 goals for East Riffa, 1.98 for Muharraq. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~7 of 10

~~Last meetings~~MUH 1–1 EAS · EAS 0–3 MUH · MUH 2–2 EAS · EAS 2–2 MUH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

EAST RIFFA

LDWWL0–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–4

MUHARRAQ

DLWDW1–1 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 2–2 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Riffa	6	+11	14
2	Khalidiya	5	+8	11
3	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	5	+2	10
4	Muharraq	5	+4	8
5	Sitra	6	+2	8
6	Al Ahli	5	0	7
7	A'Ali	6	−3	7
8	Al Najma	6	−4	7
9	East Riffa	5	−4	7
10	Al-Hidd	5	0	5
11	Manama	5	−8	2
12	Malkiya	5	−8	1