Al Riffa v East Riffa prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Al Riffa 4–0 East Riffa AL RIFFA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Riffa win~~55%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.307

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.174

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 11 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Riffa win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Riffa 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–25–20
1′KICK-OFF Al Riffa v East Riffa
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Al Riffa win: 55% at kick-off, 45% now
43′We said Al Riffa at 55%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 43%. 0–0 · 43–38–19
45′The goal count is tracking the 2.6 we expected. 1–0 · 81–15–4
45′HALF-TIME Al Riffa 1–0 East Riffa
45′SECOND HALF Al Riffa 1–0 East Riffa
50′A goal for Al Riffa on 45′. 0–0 · 40–42–18 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
51′We said Al Riffa at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 82%. 1–0 · 82–15–3
51′⚽ GOAL · 45+6' Al Riffa 1–0 East Riffa
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Al Riffa win: 55% at kick-off, 82% now
58′Al Riffa find the net on 58′. 1–0 · 83–14–3
59′We said Al Riffa at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 97%. 2–0 · 97–2–0
59′⚽ GOAL · 58' Al Riffa 2–0 East Riffa
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Al Riffa win: 55% at kick-off, 97% now
72′A goal for Al Riffa on 72′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Al Riffa 3–0 East Riffa
73′We said Al Riffa at 55% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′3 goals already, more than the 2.6 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′Al Riffa find the net on 88′. 3–0 · 100–0–0
88′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 4–0 · 100–0–0
88′⚽ GOAL · 88' Al Riffa 4–0 East Riffa
FTFULL TIME Al Riffa 4–0 East Riffa
FTAl Riffa 4–0 East Riffa · Al Riffa win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Riffa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Riffa 55%, draw 25%, East Riffa 20%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Al Riffa v East RiffaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Riffa win55%

Draw25%

East Riffa win20%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Riffa

East Riffa

4Days since last match6

Last match: 13 Oct · AGCFF Gulf Champions League

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al Riffa	4	+6	8
6	East Riffa	4	0	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al riffa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

55% The market66%

Us55%

~~Market~~66%

We make Al Riffa a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Riffa v East Riffa~~1.71 – 0.93

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L0 · W2 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 8 v 7~~3 v 6

~~The market · Al Riffa win~~66% · ours 55%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Riffa win The market, margin stripped

Published at 56%, 55% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Riffa win	55%	66%	−11
Draw	25%	21%	+4
East Riffa win	20%	12%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	57%	−8
Both teams to score	49%	50%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	74%	78%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	27%	37%	−10
Al Riffa or draw	80%	88%	−8
Al Riffa clean sheet	40%	–	–
East Riffa clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.8%

0123450 8.2 6.3 3.2 1 11.8 11.5 5.2 2 10.3 9.2 4.3 3 5.9 5.3 2.4 4 2.7 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Riffa down, East Riffa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 674 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Riffa at home: 1.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). East Riffa away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Al Riffa, 0.93 for East Riffa. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ALR 0–1 EAS · ALR 2–2 EAS · EAS 0–0 ALR · EAS 1–1 ALR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

AL RIFFA

WWDD2–0 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

EAST RIFFA

LDWW0–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	5	+2	10
2	Khalidiya	4	+7	8
3	Al Riffa	4	+6	8
4	Sitra	5	+3	8
5	Al Ahli	4	+1	7
6	East Riffa	4	0	7
7	Al Najma	4	−3	6
8	Muharraq	4	+1	5
9	Al-Hidd	4	0	4
10	A'Ali	5	−4	4
11	Manama	5	−8	2
12	Malkiya	4	−5	1