Al Najma v Al-Hidd

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Hidd win at 43%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Al-Hidd was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 30–27–43
3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Najma v Al-Hidd
4. 42′Al Najma find the net on 42′. 0–0 · 26–38–36
5. 45′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 65–24–11
6. 45′HALF-TIME Al Najma 1–0 Al-Hidd
7. 45′SECOND HALF Al Najma 1–0 Al-Hidd
8. 46′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al-Hidd win 34%)
9. 47′Al Najma find the net on 45′. 0–0 · 25–41–34 Our live view briefly showed an older score here.
10. 49′We said Al-Hidd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 1–0 · 67–24–10
11. 49′⚽ GOAL · 45+3' Al Najma 1–0 Al-Hidd
12. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Al-Hidd win: 43% at kick-off, 10% now
13. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Al Najma win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
14. 50′We said Al-Hidd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
15. 67′We said Al-Hidd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
16. 68′A goal for Al-Hidd on 68′. 1–0 · 76–20–4
17. 69′We said Al-Hidd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 18–59–23
18. 69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Al Najma 1–1 Al-Hidd
19. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Al-Hidd win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
20. 69′THE CALL SWINGS · 69' Draw is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Al Najma win 18%)
21. 74′We said Al-Hidd at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
22. 75′Al Najma find the net on 74′. 1–1 · 14–67–18
23. 76′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 83–15–2
24. 76′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al Najma 2–1 Al-Hidd
25. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Al-Hidd win: 43% at kick-off, 2% now
26. 76′THE CALL SWINGS · 76' Al Najma win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 15%)
27. 86′🟥 RED CARD · 86' Al Najma
28. 87′A red card for Al Najma on 87′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 93–6–0
29. 102′4 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 1–97–2
30. 102′⚽ GOAL · 90+12' Al Najma 2–2 Al-Hidd
31. 102′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+12' Draw is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Al Najma win 1%)
32. 104′A goal for Al-Hidd on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 1–97–2
33. FTFULL TIME Al Najma 2–2 Al-Hidd
34. FTAl Najma 2–2 Al-Hidd · Al-Hidd win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.