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Al Najma v A'Ali
Al NajmaA'AliPremier League · THU 22 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Najma win at 38%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: Al Najma was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–28–34
- 1′KICK-OFF Al Najma v A'Ali
- 13′A'Ali score on 12′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–21–63
- 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Al Najma 0–1 A'Ali
- 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Al Najma win: 38% at kick-off, 16% now
- 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' A'Ali win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Al Najma win 37%)
- 14′We said Al Najma at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 0–1 · 15–21–63
- 19′We said Al Najma at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–22–64
- 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.6 we expected. 0–1 · 12–22–66
- 44′We said Al Najma at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–22–69
- 45′HALF-TIME Al Najma 0–1 A'Ali
- 46′11′: Diego Cardoso on the scoresheet for A'Ali, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–22–69
- 46′SECOND HALF Al Najma 0–1 A'Ali
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Al Najma win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
- 63′We said Al Najma at 38%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–20–76
- 80′A'Ali find the net on 80′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
- 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Al Najma 0–2 A'Ali
- 95′A goal for Al Najma on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–1–99
- 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Al Najma 1–2 A'Ali
- 96′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.6 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–1–99
- FTFULL TIME Al Najma 1–2 A'Ali
- FTAl Najma 1–2 A'Ali · Al Najma win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Close to call, with Al Najma just ahead.
The Pitchside prediction: Al Najma 38%, draw 28%, A'Ali 34%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 52%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off
Al Najma win38%A'Ali win34%Kick-offTHU 22 OCT · 17:00
RoundMatchday 6
Match timeline
All events
Al NajmaMINA'AliEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Al Najma
A'Ali
Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)
Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Al Najma | 5 | −3 | 7 |
| 10 | A'Ali | 5 | −4 | 4 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Al Najma a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 36%, 38% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Najma win | 38% | 41% | −3 |
| Draw | 28% | 30% | −2 |
| A'Ali win | 34% | 29% | +5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 44% | +3 |
| Both teams to score | 52% | 50% | +2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73% | 69% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 24% | +2 |
| Al Najma or draw | 66% | 71% | −5 |
| Al Najma clean sheet | 30% | – | – |
| A'Ali clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2022/23Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Premier League this season · since 27 Aug
AL NAJMA
A'ALI
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al Riffa | 5 | +10 | 11 |
| 2 |  Khalidiya | 5 | +8 | 11 |
| 3 |  Al Ittifaq Maqaba | 5 | +2 | 10 |
| 4 |  Muharraq | 5 | +4 | 8 |
| 5 |  Sitra | 5 | +3 | 8 |
| 6 |  Al Ahli | 5 | 0 | 7 |
| 7 | Al Najma | 5 | −3 | 7 |
| 8 |  East Riffa | 5 | −4 | 7 |
| 9 |  Al-Hidd | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| 10 | A'Ali | 5 | −4 | 4 |
| 11 |  Manama | 5 | −8 | 2 |
| 12 |  Malkiya | 5 | −8 | 1 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.