Al-Hidd v Manama prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Al-Hidd 1–1 Manama AL-HIDD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al-Hidd win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.850

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Hidd win at 48%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Hidd was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–26–27
1′KICK-OFF Al-Hidd v Manama
13′We said Al-Hidd at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 22%. 0–1 · 22–23–54
13′⚽ GOAL · 13' Al-Hidd 0–1 Manama
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Al-Hidd win: 48% at kick-off, 22% now
13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' Manama win is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Al-Hidd win 46%)
15′Manama find the net on 14′. 0–1. 0–1 · 22–24–55
24′We said Al-Hidd at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–56
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Al-Hidd win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 18–25–58
40′We said Al-Hidd at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
45′SECOND HALF Al-Hidd 0–1 Manama
47′HALF-TIME Al-Hidd 0–1 Manama
55′We said Al-Hidd at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–66
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Al-Hidd win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
69′We said Al-Hidd at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Al-Hidd 1–1 Manama
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Manama win 93%)
88′A goal for Al-Hidd on 88′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 7–89–5
94′🟥 RED CARD · 90+4' Al-Hidd
95′A red card for Al-Hidd on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 2–97–1
100′Full time, 1–1. We called Al-Hidd at 48% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 1–1 · 0–100–0
FTFULL TIME Al-Hidd 1–1 Manama
FTAl-Hidd 1–1 Manama · Al-Hidd win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Hidd are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Hidd 48%, draw 26%, Manama 27%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Al-Hidd v ManamaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Al-Hidd win48%

Draw26%

Manama win27%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Hidd

Manama

7Days since last match8

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)

Last match: 16 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Al-Hidd	5	0	5
11	Manama	5	−8	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-hidd winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Al-Hidd a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Hidd v Manama~~1.60 – 1.12

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D2 L2 · W0 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 5 v 2~~10 v 11

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Hidd win	48%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Manama win	27%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Al-Hidd or draw	73%	–	–
Al-Hidd clean sheet	33%	–	–
Manama clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.6 7.1 4.3 1 10.2 12.0 6.4 2.5 2 8.3 9.0 5.0 3 4.5 4.8 2.7 4 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Hidd down, Manama across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 682 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 34 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.22 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Hidd at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Manama away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.60 goals for Al-Hidd, 1.12 for Manama. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.22

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~1 of 9

~~Last meetings~~MAN 0–0 ALH · ALH 0–2 MAN · MAN 0–0 ALH · MAN 3–0 ALH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

AL-HIDD

WLDLD2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–2

MANAMA

DLLLD1–1 · 1–5 · 1–3 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Riffa	6	+11	14
2	Khalidiya	6	+8	12
3	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	6	+2	11
4	Muharraq	6	+5	11
5	Sitra	6	+2	8
6	Al Ahli	5	0	7
7	A'Ali	6	−3	7
8	Al Najma	6	−4	7
9	East Riffa	6	−5	7
10	Al-Hidd	5	0	5
11	Manama	5	−8	2
12	Malkiya	5	−8	1