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Al-Hidd v Al Ittifaq Maqaba

Al-Hidd

0–1Full time

Al Ittifaq Maqaba

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Al-Hidd 0–1 Al Ittifaq Maqaba AL-HIDD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Hidd win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.686

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Hidd win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Hidd was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–29–33
6′Much as we predicted: Al-Hidd was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 38% now. 0–0 · 38–30–32
45′A goal for Al Ittifaq Maqaba on 43′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–70
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Al Ittifaq Maqaba win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Al-Hidd win 8%)
45′SECOND HALF Al-Hidd 0–1 Al Ittifaq Maqaba
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 46' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
46′THE CALL SWINGS · 46' Al Ittifaq Maqaba win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Al-Hidd win 8%)
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 47' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 34% now
51′A goal for Al Ittifaq Maqaba on 43′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 8–22–70
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Al-Hidd win: 38% at kick-off, 8% now
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Al Ittifaq Maqaba win is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Al-Hidd win 8%)
71′🟥 RED CARD · 71' Al Ittifaq Maqaba
FTFULL TIME Al-Hidd 0–1 Al Ittifaq Maqaba
FTAl-Hidd 0–1 Al Ittifaq Maqaba · Al-Hidd win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al-Hidd win38%

Draw30%

Al Ittifaq Maqaba win33%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-hidd winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Al-Hidd a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Hidd win	38%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Al Ittifaq Maqaba win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	45%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	65%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Al-Hidd or draw	67%	–	–
Al-Hidd clean sheet	35%	–	–
Al Ittifaq Maqaba clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.3%

0123450 12.1 10.7 6.1 2.3 1 11.8 13.3 6.8 2.5 2 7.3 7.3 3.9 3 3.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Hidd down, Al Ittifaq Maqaba across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 668 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Al-Hidd at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Ittifaq Maqaba away: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Al-Hidd, 1.07 for Al Ittifaq Maqaba. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premier League

AL-HIDD

LWWWLD0–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

AL ITTIFAQ MAQABA

WLLLWW3–2 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Khalidiya	4	+7	8
2	Al Riffa	4	+6	8
3	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	3	+1	6
4	Sitra	3	+3	5
5	Muharraq	4	+1	5
6	Al-Hidd	3	+1	4
7	A'Ali	3	−1	4
8	East Riffa	3	−1	4
9	Al Ahli	3	−1	4
10	Al Najma	3	−5	3
11	Malkiya	4	−5	1
12	Manama	3	−6	1