A'Ali v Sitra prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 19:31

A'Ali 0–2 Sitra SITRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sitra win~~39%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.567

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.543

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sitra win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sitra was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 31–30–39
1′KICK-OFF A'Ali v Sitra
6′A'Ali score on 6′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 62–23–15
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' A'Ali 1–0 Sitra
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 6' Sitra win: 39% at kick-off, 15% now
6′THE CALL SWINGS · 6' A'Ali win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Sitra win 15%)
7′We said Sitra at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 62–23–15
8′GOAL DISALLOWED · 8' A'Ali
8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Sitra win: 39% at kick-off, 38% now
8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' Sitra win is now our likeliest result at 38% (was A'Ali win 30%)
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sitra win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME A'Ali 0–0 Sitra
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Sitra win: 39% at kick-off, 29% now
47′SECOND HALF A'Ali 0–0 Sitra
52′We said Sitra at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 27%. 0–0 · 23–50–27
60′We said Sitra at 39%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 20–56–24
64′Sitra score on 64′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 2–16–82
64′⚽ GOAL · 64' A'Ali 0–1 Sitra
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Sitra win: 39% at kick-off, 82% now
64′THE CALL SWINGS · 64' Sitra win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 16%)
65′We published Sitra at 39%. Our model now makes it 82%. 0–1 · 2–16–82
71′We published Sitra at 39%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 1–13–85
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Sitra win: 39% at kick-off, 89% now
78′We published Sitra at 39%. Our model now makes it 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
85′We published Sitra at 39%. Our model now makes it 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
94′Sitra find the net on 90′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′We published Sitra at 39%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+4' Sitra win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' A'Ali 0–2 Sitra
95′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–2 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME A'Ali 0–2 Sitra
FTA'Ali 0–2 Sitra · Sitra win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sitra are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: A'Ali 30%, draw 31%, Sitra 39%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on A'Ali v SitraBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

A'Ali win30%

Draw31%

Sitra win39%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 5

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

A'Ali

Sitra

5Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Bahrain)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sitra	4	+1	5
10	A'Ali	4	−2	4

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sitra winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Sitra a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · A'Ali v Sitra~~0.95 – 1.12

~~Form · Premier League this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D1 L2 · W1 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 4 v 5~~10 v 8

~~The market · Sitra win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sitra win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
A'Ali win	30%	29%	+1
Draw	31%	31%	0
Sitra win	39%	40%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	34%	40%	−6
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	61%	65%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	16%	22%	−6
A'Ali or draw	61%	60%	+1
A'Ali clean sheet	33%	–	–
Sitra clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 13.7%

0123450 13.7 13.5 7.8 3.0 1 11.4 13.6 7.3 2.8 2 5.7 6.2 3.5 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+A'Ali down, Sitra across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 672 Premier League matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.2% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 1.25 goals a meeting; 1 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

A'Ali at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Sitra away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for A'Ali, 1.12 for Sitra. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~1.25

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~AAL 0–2 SIT · SIT 0–0 AAL · AAL 0–0 SIT · SIT 2–1 AAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Premier League this season · since 27 Aug

A'ALI

DLWL1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–2

SITRA

WDDL3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ittifaq Maqaba	4	+2	9
2	Khalidiya	4	+7	8
3	Al Riffa	4	+6	8
4	Al Ahli	4	+1	7
5	East Riffa	4	0	7
6	Al Najma	4	−3	6
7	Muharraq	4	+1	5
8	Sitra	4	+1	5
9	Al-Hidd	4	0	4
10	A'Ali	4	−2	4
11	Malkiya	4	−5	1
12	Manama	4	−8	1