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Model 1.2

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Zira v Sumqayıt

Zira
3–2Full time
Sumqayıt

Premyer Liqa · FRI 23 OCT · Zira Stadium

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31
Zira 3–2 Sumqayıt ZIRA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Zira win53%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.336
The market’s Brier score0.315

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay21 notes · 33 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Zira win at 53%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Zira was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 52% now. 0–0 · 52–25–22
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Zira v Sumqayıt
  4. 8′Zira find the net on 8′. 1–0. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  5. 8′We published Zira at 53%. Our model now makes it 78%. 1–0 · 78–15–7
  6. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Zira 1–0 Sumqayıt
  7. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 8' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 78% now
  8. 10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Zira
  9. 21′A goal for Zira on 20′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  10. 21′We published Zira at 53%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
  11. 21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Zira 2–0 Sumqayıt
  12. 21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 94% now
  13. 29′We published Zira at 53%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
  14. 38′Sumqayıt score on 38′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 79–16–5
  15. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Zira 2–1 Sumqayıt
  16. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 79% now
  17. 39′We published Zira at 53%. Our model now makes it 80%. 2–1 · 80–16–5
  18. 40′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  19. 45′HALF-TIME Zira 2–1 Sumqayıt
  20. 46′39′: N. Ahmadzada on the scoresheet for Sumqayıt, making it 2–1. 2–1 · 80–16–4
  21. 46′SECOND HALF Zira 2–1 Sumqayıt
  22. 48′Sumqayıt find the net on 47′. 2–2. 2–2 · 39–42–19
  23. 48′We said Zira at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 2–2 · 39–42–19
  24. 48′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 39–42–19
  25. 48′⚽ GOAL · 47' Zira 2–2 Sumqayıt
  26. 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 39% now
  27. 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Zira win 81%)
  28. 54′GOAL DISALLOWED · 54' Sumqayıt
  29. 54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 82% now
  30. 54′THE CALL SWINGS · 54' Zira win is now our likeliest result at 82% (was Draw 45%)
  31. 57′Sumqayıt find the net on 56′. 2–2. 2–2 · 34–49–17
  32. 57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Zira 2–2 Sumqayıt
  33. 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 34% now
  34. 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Zira win 82%)
  35. 58′We said Zira at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 2–2 · 33–49–17
  36. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 33% now
  37. 64′We said Zira at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 29–55–16
  38. 71′We said Zira at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 24–63–13
  39. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 23% now
  40. 76′We said Zira at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 2–2 · 19–71–10
  41. 80′We said Zira at 53%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 2–2 · 14–77–8
  42. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 13% now
  43. 82′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Zira
  44. 84′A goal for Zira on 83′ — 3–2. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  45. 84′⚽ GOAL · 83' Zira 3–2 Sumqayıt
  46. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Zira win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
  47. 84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Zira win is now our likeliest result at 95% (was Draw 83%)
  48. 85′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 95–5–0
  49. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zira · On: D. Chrismael · Off: A. Seydiyev
  50. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zira · On: I. Djibrilla · Off: E. Aydin
  51. 87′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Zira · On: H. Hacyly · Off: E. Alicanov
  52. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Sumqayıt · On: R. Kehat · Off: E. Mustafaev
  53. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Zira · On: M. Mchakhchekh · Off: A. Guseynov
  54. 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Sumqayıt
  55. FTFULL TIME Zira 3–2 Sumqayıt
  56. FTZira 3–2 Sumqayıt · Zira win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Zira are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Zira 53%, draw 25%, Sumqayıt 22%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Zira v SumqayıtBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Zira win53%
Draw25%
Sumqayıt win22%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueZira Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Zira

Sumqayıt

5Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 16 Oct · Premyer Liqa

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Zira8−112
8Sumqayıt708

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · zira winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
53% The market54%
Us53%
Market54%

We make Zira a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Zira v Sumqayıt1.56 – 0.90
Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 30 AugW1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2
Table places · points 12 v 86 v 8
The market · Zira win54% · ours 53%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60% 17 OCT 00:0123 OCT 15:38
Our probability · Zira win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Zira win53%54%−1
Draw25%26%−1
Sumqayıt win22%19%+3
Over 2.5 goals44%48%−4
Both teams to score46%50%−4
Over 1.5 goals70%71%−1
Over 3.5 goals24%28%−4
Zira or draw78%81%−3
Zira clean sheet41%––
Sumqayıt clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.6%
0123450 8.5 8.1 3.6 1 13.6 11.5 5.4 2 10.2 9.1 4.1 3 5.4 4.7 2.1 4 2.2 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Zira down, Sumqayıt across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.50
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored4 of 10
Last meetingsZIR 2–1 SUM · ZIR 2–0 SUM · SUM 2–3 ZIR · SUM 0–0 ZIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 30 Aug

ZIRA

WLDLDD1–0 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–1

SUMQAYIT

LLDDWW0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Sabah FA7+1719
2Neftchi Baku8+1317
3Qarabag7+717
4Turan8+214
5Şamaxı FK8+313
6Zira8−112
7Kapaz7−111
8Sumqayıt708
9Qabala9−117
10Imisli FK8−67
11Safa Baku8−113
12Araz9−122

The competition's standings before kick-off.