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Zira v Şamaxı FK

Zira

1–1Full time

Şamaxı FK

Premyer Liqa · SAT 10 OCT · Zira Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:30

Zira 1–1 Şamaxı FK ZIRA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Zira win~~50%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.822

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.832

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Zira win at 50%.
2′Much as we predicted: Zira was 50% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–29–21
2′KICK-OFF Zira v Şamaxı FK
17′🟨 YELLOW · 17' Zira
44′We said Zira at 50%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 38%. 0–0 · 38–44–18
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Zira win: 50% at kick-off, 38% now
44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Zira win 38%)
45′HALF-TIME Zira 0–0 Şamaxı FK
49′SECOND HALF Zira 0–0 Şamaxı FK
52′Şamaxı FK find the net on 53′. 0–0. 0–0 · 34–49–17
55′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Zira · On: H. Hacyly · Off: R. Martins Corrected
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' Zira 0–1 Şamaxı FK
57′🟨 YELLOW · 55' A. Bouali · Şamaxı FK
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Şamaxı FK · On: E. Adilkhanov · Off: U. Cahangirov
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Zira 1–1 Şamaxı FK
72′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Şamaxı FK · On: T. Akhvlediani · Off: A. Shuaibu
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Şamaxı FK · On: O. Tahmazli · Off: O. Mammadov
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Zira · On: E. Aydin · Off: A. Seydiyev
72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Zira · On: G. Papunashvili · Off: I. Ibrahimli
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Şamaxı FK · On: H. Ismayilov · Off: A. Bouali
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Şamaxı FK
FTFULL TIME Zira 1–1 Şamaxı FK
FTZira 1–1 Şamaxı FK · Zira win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Zira win50%

Draw28%

Şamaxı FK win22%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 14:00

Venue · Zira Stadium

Referee · F. Hajiyev

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Zira

Formation not confirmed

72 H. Quliyev

32 Q. Aliyev

8 I. Ibrahimli

2 A. Seydiyev

11 A. Guseynov

4 Ruan Renato

9 D. Volkovi

21 Guima

5 A. Mutsinzi

3 D. Legbo

33 M. Misahsah

Coach · Rashad Sadiqov

Substitutes

13 · A. Bayramov

41 · A. Nazirov

6 · H. Hacyly

14 · E. Alicanov

57 · Y. Haciyev

43 · A. Suleymanzade

10 · G. Papunashvili

7 · E. Aydin

23 · D. Smith

Şamaxı FK

Formation not confirmed

1 Ricardo Fernandes

14 U. Cahangirov

5 E. Rustamov

97 O. Mammadov

25 F. Marques

13 R. Apolinario

11 A. Bouali

3 Jota

19 A. Shuaibu

4 R. F. Pereira Pacheco

52 A. Moumini

Coach · Aykhan Abbasov

Substitutes

62 · A. Seyiahmadov

96 · N. Qarazoglu

80 · H. Ismayilov

2 · F. Xeyrullayev

7 · E. Suleymanov

77 · O. Tahmazli

88 · H. Shiraliyev

10 · E. Adilkhanov

17 · S. Muradly

66 · C. Bagyrzada

9 · T. Akhvlediani

8 · D. Dego

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Zira

Formation not confirmed

72 H. Quliyev

32 Q. Aliyev

8 I. Ibrahimli

2 A. Seydiyev

11 A. Guseynov

4 Ruan Renato

9 D. Volkovi

21 Guima

5 A. Mutsinzi

3 D. Legbo

33 M. Misahsah

Coach · Rashad Sadiqov

Substitutes

13 · A. Bayramov

41 · A. Nazirov

6 · H. Hacyly

14 · E. Alicanov

57 · Y. Haciyev

43 · A. Suleymanzade

10 · G. Papunashvili

7 · E. Aydin

23 · D. Smith

Şamaxı FK

Formation not confirmed

1 Ricardo Fernandes

14 U. Cahangirov

5 E. Rustamov

97 O. Mammadov

25 F. Marques

13 R. Apolinario

11 A. Bouali

3 Jota

19 A. Shuaibu

4 R. F. Pereira Pacheco

52 A. Moumini

Coach · Aykhan Abbasov

Substitutes

62 · A. Seyiahmadov

96 · N. Qarazoglu

80 · H. Ismayilov

2 · F. Xeyrullayev

7 · E. Suleymanov

77 · O. Tahmazli

88 · H. Shiraliyev

10 · E. Adilkhanov

17 · S. Muradly

66 · C. Bagyrzada

9 · T. Akhvlediani

8 · D. Dego

Our number · zira winPublished 10 Oct 14:16

50% The market51%

Us50%

~~Market~~51%

We make Zira a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · zira win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 51% to 52% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Zira win	50%	51%	−1
Draw	28%	28%	0
Şamaxı FK win	22%	21%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	35%	43%	−9
Both teams to score	38%	47%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	61%	68%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	16%	23%	−8
Zira or draw	78%	79%	−1
Zira clean sheet	47%	–	–
Şamaxı FK clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.8%

0123450 12.5 9.8 3.6 1 16.8 11.9 4.7 2 10.9 8.1 3.1 3 4.9 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Zira down, Şamaxı FK across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 886 Premyer Liqa matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 6 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Zira at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Şamaxı FK away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Zira, 0.76 for Şamaxı FK. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 15

~~Both scored~~5 of 15

~~Last meetings~~ZIR 1–1 SAM · SAM 2–1 ZIR · ZIR 2–1 SAM · ZIR 3–0 SAM

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa

ZIRA

WWWLDL2–0 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 0–5 · 1–1 · 0–1

ŞAMAXI FK

LDDWDW1–3 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 4–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	7	+13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	+13	16
3	Qarabag	5	+5	13
4	Turan	6	+2	11
5	Zira	6	−1	10
6	Kapaz	6	−1	10
7	Şamaxı FK	6	+2	9
8	Imisli FK	6	−5	4
9	Qabala	6	−5	4
10	Safa Baku	6	−9	3
11	Sumqayıt	5	−4	2
12	Araz	7	−10	2