Home › Football › Premyer Liqa › Sumqayıt v Qabala

Sumqayıt v Qabala

Sumqayıt

4–1Full time

Qabala

Premyer Liqa · SAT 10 OCT · Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 19:03

Sumqayıt 4–1 Qabala SUMQAYIT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sumqayıt win~~43%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.488

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.580

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 16 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sumqayıt win at 43%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Sumqayıt 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–28–30
9′6′ and it is 1–0: M. Bangre on the scoresheet for Sumqayıt. 1–0 · 71–19–11
30′29′ and it is 3–1: R. Vasquez on the scoresheet for Sumqayıt. 3–1 · 92–6–2
38′29′ and it is 3–1: R. Vasquez on the scoresheet for Sumqayıt. 3–1 · 93–6–1
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sumqayıt win: 43% at kick-off, 92% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Sumqayıt win: 43% at kick-off, 93% now
45′HALF-TIME Sumqayıt 3–1 Qabala
46′SECOND HALF Sumqayıt 3–1 Qabala
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Qabala · On: E. Cekici · Off: F. Iskandarov
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Sumqayıt
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Sumqayıt
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Qabala · On: Raphael Utzig · Off: K. Rossi
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Sumqayıt 4–1 Qabala
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Qabala · On: Edson Eduardo · Off: N. Monzango
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Qabala · On: Bruno Silva · Off: M. Ubochioma
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Qabala
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Qabala · On: N. Rashidov · Off: K. Mabea
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Sumqayıt · On: A. Suleymali · Off: Renan Santana
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Sumqayıt · On: N. Orucov · Off: M. Bangre
FTFULL TIME Sumqayıt 4–1 Qabala
FTSumqayıt 4–1 Qabala · Sumqayıt win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Sumqayıt win43%

Draw27%

Qabala win30%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 16:30

Venue · Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium

Referee · K. Rahimov

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Sumqayıt

Formation not confirmed

16 M. Johansson

29 E. Mustafaev

9 Jeam

4 E. Suliman

42 C. Badolo

10 R. Vasquez

80 Keffel

55 Lucas Black

11 M. Bangre

21 Tiago Almeida

5 Renan Santana

Coach · Filipe Candido

Substitutes

22 · K. Farzullayev

12 · A. Arikhov

7 · R. Ahmadzada

20 · A. Suleymali

17 · N. Ahmadzada

75 · N. Orucov

97 · V. Pashayev

19 · R. Kehat

27 · I. Barker

71 · M. Murata

Qabala

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Agayev

4 E. Camalov

22 F. Iskandarov

10 S. Shahniyarov

27 E. Ahmadov

24 I. Akinade

9 K. Rossi

12 K. Mabea

16 I. Amoah

5 N. Monzango

80 M. Ubochioma

Coach · Jeton Bekjiri

Substitutes

94 · H. Hushanov

11 · A. Mammadov

13 · N. Aliyev

66 · N. Rashidov

74 · S. Damadayev

23 · Raphael Utzig

8 · E. Cekici

7 · Bruno Silva

3 · Edson Eduardo

21 · Z. Shakarkhanov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Sumqayıt

Formation not confirmed

16 M. Johansson

29 E. Mustafaev

9 Jeam

4 E. Suliman

42 C. Badolo

10 R. Vasquez

80 Keffel

55 Lucas Black

11 M. Bangre

21 Tiago Almeida

5 Renan Santana

Coach · Filipe Candido

Substitutes

22 · K. Farzullayev

12 · A. Arikhov

7 · R. Ahmadzada

20 · A. Suleymali

17 · N. Ahmadzada

75 · N. Orucov

97 · V. Pashayev

19 · R. Kehat

27 · I. Barker

71 · M. Murata

Qabala

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Agayev

4 E. Camalov

22 F. Iskandarov

10 S. Shahniyarov

27 E. Ahmadov

24 I. Akinade

9 K. Rossi

12 K. Mabea

16 I. Amoah

5 N. Monzango

80 M. Ubochioma

Coach · Jeton Bekjiri

Substitutes

94 · H. Hushanov

11 · A. Mammadov

13 · N. Aliyev

66 · N. Rashidov

74 · S. Damadayev

23 · Raphael Utzig

8 · E. Cekici

7 · Bruno Silva

3 · Edson Eduardo

21 · Z. Shakarkhanov

Our number · sumqayıt winPublished 10 Oct 16:37

43% The market38%

Us43%

~~Market~~38%

We make Sumqayıt a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sumqayıt win	43%	38%	+5
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Qabala win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	43%	+1
Both teams to score	48%	49%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	69%	67%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	22%	0
Sumqayıt or draw	70%	68%	+2
Sumqayıt clean sheet	35%	–	–
Qabala clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.3%

0123450 8.9 10.0 5.2 1 12.3 12.3 6.8 2.5 2 8.0 8.4 4.5 3 3.6 3.8 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sumqayıt down, Qabala across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 886 Premyer Liqa matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.4% of games this season, across 36 played.

Head to head

15 previous meetings, 1.87 goals a meeting; 5 of 15 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sumqayıt at home: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Qabala away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.34 goals for Sumqayıt, 1.07 for Qabala. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

15 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.87

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 15

~~Both scored~~6 of 15

~~Last meetings~~SUM 1–0 QAB · SUM 0–0 QAB · QAB 0–2 SUM · SUM 1–0 QAB

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa

SUMQAYIT

LLLLDD3–4 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

QABALA

LLDWLL0–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	7	+13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	+13	16
3	Qarabag	5	+5	13
4	Turan	6	+2	11
5	Zira	6	−1	10
6	Kapaz	6	−1	10
7	Şamaxı FK	6	+2	9
8	Imisli FK	6	−5	4
9	Qabala	6	−5	4
10	Safa Baku	6	−9	3
11	Sumqayıt	5	−4	2
12	Araz	7	−10	2