Sumqayıt v Araz prediction · Premyer Liqa

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 18:31

Sumqayıt 2–1 Araz SUMQAYIT WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Sumqayıt win~~44%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.467

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.509

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sumqayıt win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Sumqayıt 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
1′KICK-OFF Sumqayıt v Araz
23′SUBSTITUTION · 21' Araz · On: Bruno Franco · Off: I. Paro
33′Araz score on 33′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 14–24–62
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Sumqayıt 0–1 Araz
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Sumqayıt win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Araz win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Sumqayıt win 14%)
34′We said Sumqayıt at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–24–62
35′The goal count is tracking the 2.7 we expected. 0–1 · 14–24–62
38′32′: A. Fernandez on the scoresheet for Araz, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 13–24–63
45′HALF-TIME Sumqayıt 0–1 Araz
46′SECOND HALF Sumqayıt 0–1 Araz
50′We said Sumqayıt at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–24–67
62′Sumqayıt find the net on 62′. 1–1. 1–1 · 28–51–21
62′We said Sumqayıt at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 28%. 1–1 · 28–51–21
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Sumqayıt 1–1 Araz
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Sumqayıt win: 44% at kick-off, 28% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Draw is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Araz win 21%)
68′We said Sumqayıt at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–18
68′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Araz · On: R. Muradov · Off: C. Boli
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Sumqayıt win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
74′We said Sumqayıt at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–66–15
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Sumqayıt win: 44% at kick-off, 13% now
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Araz · On: C. Nuriyev · Off: A. Fernandez
83′A goal for Sumqayıt on 83′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 92–8–0
83′We said Sumqayıt at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 92%. 2–1 · 92–8–0
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Sumqayıt 2–1 Araz
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Sumqayıt win: 44% at kick-off, 92% now
83′THE CALL SWINGS · 83' Sumqayıt win is now our likeliest result at 92% (was Draw 8%)
84′3 goals already, more than the 2.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 93–7–0
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Sumqayıt
84′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Araz
84′GOAL DISALLOWED · 84' Sumqayıt
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sumqayıt win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
84′THE CALL SWINGS · 84' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Sumqayıt win 9%)
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Sumqayıt · On: R. Kehat · Off: E. Mustafaev Corrected
86′A goal for Sumqayıt on 85′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
86′🟥 RED CARD · 85' Araz
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Sumqayıt 2–1 Araz
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Sumqayıt win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Sumqayıt win is now our likeliest result at 94% (was Draw 6%)
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Araz
87′N. Ahmadzada scores for Sumqayıt on 82′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′Araz are down to ten from 85′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 2–1 · 95–5–0
87′We said Sumqayıt at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
88′🟨 YELLOW · 85' A. Salyanskiy · Araz
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Sumqayıt · On: A. Suleymali · Off: R. Vasquez
89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Sumqayıt
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Sumqayıt · On: I. Barker · Off: N. Ahmadzada
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Sumqayıt · On: N. Orucov · Off: M. Bangre
95′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Sumqayıt
FTFULL TIME Sumqayıt 2–1 Araz
FTSumqayıt 2–1 Araz · Sumqayıt win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Sumqayıt are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Sumqayıt 44%, draw 25%, Araz 31%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Sumqayıt v ArazBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

Sumqayıt win44%

Draw25%

Araz win31%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueMehdi Huseynzade Stadium

Line-ups

Sumqayıt

Araz

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sumqayıt

Araz

6Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Premyer Liqa

Last match: 9 Oct · Premyer Liqa

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Sumqayıt	6	−1	5
12	Araz	7	−10	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sumqayıt

Formation not confirmed

16 M. Johansson

17 N. Ahmadzada

10 R. Vasquez

80 Keffel

29 E. Mustafaev

42 C. Badolo

4 E. Suliman

5 Renan Santana

55 Lucas Black

21 Tiago Almeida

11 M. Bangre

Coach · Filipe Candido

Substitutes

22 · K. Farzullayev

12 · A. Arikhov

20 · A. Suleymali

37 · N. Orucali

75 · N. Orucov

97 · V. Pashayev

27 · I. Barker

19 · R. Kehat

23 · R. Ahmadov

3 · H. Haqverdi

Araz

Formation not confirmed

99 T. Ahmadli

17 I. Paro

10 C. Boli

6 P. Andrade

8 M. Ahmadzada

5 L. Dumancic

11 M. Mara

23 A. Fernandez

36 M. Kane

27 B. Letic

9 A. Salyanskiy

Coach · Cavid Huseynov

Substitutes

1 · A. Augusto

14 · U. Isgandarov

26 · O. Buludov

12 · Bruno Franco

7 · R. Muradov

29 · C. Nuriyev

21 · I. Piriyev

19 · A. Sudi

13 · Q. Alizada

53 · F. Tagiyev

2 · A. Rzayev

Our number · sumqayıt winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 11 Oct 04:01 · locked at kick-off

44% The market42%

Us44%

~~Market~~42%

We make Sumqayıt a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sumqayıt v Araz~~1.48 – 1.18

~~Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 16 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 5 v 2~~8 v 12

~~The market · Sumqayıt win~~42% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sumqayıt win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 44% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sumqayıt win	44%	42%	+2
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Araz win	31%	30%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	74%	74%	0
Over 3.5 goals	28%	31%	−3
Sumqayıt or draw	69%	70%	−1
Sumqayıt clean sheet	31%	–	–
Araz clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 6.9 8.7 4.9 1 10.7 11.7 7.1 2.8 2 7.6 8.8 5.2 2.1 3 3.8 4.4 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sumqayıt down, Araz across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 890 Premyer Liqa matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 42.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sumqayıt at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Araz away: 1.00 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Sumqayıt, 1.18 for Araz. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SUM 2–1 ARA · ARA 1–0 SUM · SUM 3–2 ARA · ARA 2–0 SUM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 16 Aug

SUMQAYIT

LLLDDW1–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 4–1

ARAZ

LLLDLL0–5 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	7	+13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	+13	16
3	Qarabag	6	+7	16
4	Turan	7	+3	14
5	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
6	Zira	7	−1	11
7	Kapaz	6	−1	10
8	Sumqayıt	6	−1	5
9	Qabala	7	−8	4
10	Imisli FK	7	−7	4
11	Safa Baku	8	−11	3
12	Araz	7	−10	2