Şamaxı FK v Safa Baku

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Şamaxı FK win at 46%.
2. 1′Much as we predicted: Şamaxı FK was 46% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 46–30–25
3. 1′KICK-OFF Şamaxı FK v Safa Baku
4. 5′A goal for Safa Baku on 5′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 20–25–55
5. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Şamaxı FK 0–1 Safa Baku
6. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Şamaxı FK win: 46% at kick-off, 20% now
7. 5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' Safa Baku win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Şamaxı FK win 20%)
8. 6′We said Şamaxı FK at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–26–55
9. 18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Şamaxı FK win: 46% at kick-off, 16% now
10. 26′We said Şamaxı FK at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–26–60
11. 27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Safa Baku
12. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 13–26–61
13. 44′We said Şamaxı FK at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–65
14. 45′HALF-TIME Şamaxı FK 0–1 Safa Baku
15. 46′SECOND HALF Şamaxı FK 0–1 Safa Baku
16. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Safa Baku
17. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Safa Baku
18. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Şamaxı FK win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
19. 56′Safa Baku score on 56′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 1–5–94
20. 56′⚽ GOAL · 56' Şamaxı FK 0–2 Safa Baku
21. 57′We said Şamaxı FK at 46%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–5–94
22. 65′Şamaxı FK find the net on 65′. 1–2. 1–2 · 4–20–76
23. 65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Şamaxı FK 1–2 Safa Baku
24. 66′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 4–20–77
25. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Şamaxı FK · On: H. Ismayilov · Off: E. Adilkhanov
26. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Şamaxı FK · On: D. Dego · Off: O. Mammadov
27. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Şamaxı FK · On: T. Akhvlediani · Off: A. Shuaibu
28. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Safa Baku · On: Luis Felipe · Off: E. Cafarov
29. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Safa Baku · On: N. Quliyev · Off: R. Huseynli
30. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Safa Baku · On: V. Pop · Off: F. Yusifli
31. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Safa Baku · On: V. Qanbarov · Off: M. Guel
32. 82′A goal for Şamaxı FK on 82′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 10–84–6
33. 82′⚽ GOAL · 82' Şamaxı FK 2–2 Safa Baku
34. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Şamaxı FK win: 46% at kick-off, 10% now
35. 82′THE CALL SWINGS · 82' Draw is now our likeliest result at 84% (was Safa Baku win 6%)
36. 83′4 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 9–86–6
37. 84′H. Ismayilov scores for Şamaxı FK on 81′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 8–88–5
38. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Şamaxı FK · On: U. Cahangirov · Off: A. Bouali
39. 86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' Şamaxı FK win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
40. 95′Şamaxı FK score on 90′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
41. 95′⚽ GOAL · 90+5' Şamaxı FK 3–2 Safa Baku
42. 95′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+5' Şamaxı FK win: 46% at kick-off, 99% now
43. 95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Şamaxı FK win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
44. 96′We published Şamaxı FK at 46%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–2 · 99–1–0
45. 97′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 3–2 · 99–1–0
46. FTFULL TIME Şamaxı FK 3–2 Safa Baku
47. FTŞamaxı FK 3–2 Safa Baku · Şamaxı FK win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.