Safa Baku v Turan prediction · Premyer Liqa

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Safa Baku 0–1 Turan TURAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Turan win~~49%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.394

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.209

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Turan win at 49%.
1′KICK-OFF Safa Baku v Turan
2′Much as we predicted: Turan was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 23–28–48
5′Much as we predicted: Turan was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 23–29–48
6′🟨 YELLOW · 5' Turan
7′🟨 YELLOW · 6' Safa Baku
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Safa Baku
25′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Turan · On: E. Hackman · Off: H. Hurtado
45′⚽ GOAL · 47' Safa Baku 0–1 Turan
45′HALF-TIME Safa Baku 0–1 Turan
46′SECOND HALF Safa Baku 0–1 Turan
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Safa Baku · On: F. Yusifli · Off: V. Pop
60′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Safa Baku · On: E. Cafarov · Off: V. Qanbarov
65′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Safa Baku · On: I. Zulfugarli · Off: C. Mamengi
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Safa Baku
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Safa Baku
71′🟨 YELLOW · 68' F. Yusifli · Safa Baku
81′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Turan · On: D. Marandici · Off: Henrique Silva
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Turan · On: A. Jankovic · Off: D. Tavares
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Safa Baku · On: Luis Felipe · Off: D. Mertens
90′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Safa Baku · On: N. Aliyev · Off: B. Dansoko
FTFULL TIME Safa Baku 0–1 Turan
FTSafa Baku 0–1 Turan · Turan win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Safa Baku win24%

Draw27%

Turan win49%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:30

VenueASK Arena

RefereeA. Aliyev

Line-ups

Safa Baku

Turan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Safa Baku

Turan

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Turan	6	+2	11
11	Safa Baku	6	−9	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Safa Baku

Formation not confirmed

12 A. Mustabazada

5 A. Agcabayov

83 N. Quliyev

10 D. Mertens

18 B. Dansoko

4 M. Jarjue

17 M. Guel

11 A. Dragu

8 V. Pop

34 C. Mamengi

29 V. Qanbarov

Coach · –

Substitutes

99 · M. Huseynov

96 · A. Alizada

42 · E. Cafarov

23 · N. Aliyev

21 · I. Zulfugarli

55 · R. Huseynli

6 · F. Yusifli

28 · M. Musayev

9 · Luis Felipe

7 · T. Fuller

22 · O. Diaw

73 · E. Mammadov

Turan

Formation not confirmed

1 O. Baklov

3 Henrique Silva

5 R. Miller

7 J. Silva

8 D. Tavares

11 D. Balau

21 S. Beusnard

23 A. Serrano

32 H. Hurtado

33 F. Damjanovic

77 I. Wadji

Coach · Kurban Berdyev

Substitutes

35 · A. Kenyaykin

13 · M. Haciyev

15 · E. Hackman

10 · K. Nacafov

17 · R. Sadykhov

19 · R. Olabe

25 · D. Marandici

28 · A. Jankovic

88 · F. Haciyev

99 · S. Shafiyev

Our number · turan winPublished 11 Oct 15:30

49% The market63%

Us49%

~~Market~~63%

We make Turan a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · turan win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Safa Baku win	24%	14%	+10
Draw	27%	23%	+4
Turan win	49%	63%	−14
Over 2.5 goals	38%	51%	−13
Both teams to score	41%	47%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	64%	74%	−10
Over 3.5 goals	19%	31%	−13
Safa Baku or draw	51%	37%	+14
Safa Baku clean sheet	26%	–	–
Turan clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 15.1%

0123450 11.0 15.1 10.0 4.7 1 9.7 12.0 8.2 3.8 2 4.1 5.3 3.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Safa Baku down, Turan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 888 Premyer Liqa matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.7% of games this season, across 38 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Safa Baku at home: 0.00 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 2). Turan away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Safa Baku, 1.37 for Turan. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa

SAFA BAKU

LWLLLL0–2 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 0–3 · 0–1

TURAN

WDLWDW1–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Neftchi Baku	7	+13	16
2	Sabah FA	6	+13	16
3	Qarabag	5	+5	13
4	Turan	6	+2	11
5	Zira	7	−1	11
6	Şamaxı FK	7	+2	10
7	Kapaz	6	−1	10
8	Sumqayıt	6	−1	5
9	Imisli FK	6	−5	4
10	Qabala	7	−8	4
11	Safa Baku	6	−9	3
12	Araz	7	−10	2