Safa Baku v Kapaz

1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Safa Baku win at 41%.
2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Safa Baku 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–27–32
3. 1′KICK-OFF Safa Baku v Kapaz
4. 21′PENALTY MISSED · 20' Kapaz
5. 38′THE CALL SWINGS · 38' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Safa Baku win 36%)
6. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Safa Baku
7. 45′HALF-TIME Safa Baku 0–0 Kapaz
8. 46′SECOND HALF Safa Baku 0–0 Kapaz
9. 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Safa Baku win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
10. 52′We said Safa Baku at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–47–24
11. 56′Safa Baku score on 55′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–4
12. 56′We said Safa Baku at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–4
13. 56′⚽ GOAL · 55' Safa Baku 1–0 Kapaz
14. 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Safa Baku win: 41% at kick-off, 77% now
15. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Safa Baku win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 49%)
16. 57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Safa Baku
17. 62′We said Safa Baku at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
18. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Safa Baku win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
19. 72′We said Safa Baku at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
20. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Kapaz · On: A. Abubakar · Off: R. Maharramli
21. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Safa Baku · On: B. Dansoko · Off: Luis Felipe
22. 75′Kapaz find the net on 74′. 1–1. 1–1 · 16–70–14
23. 75′We said Safa Baku at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–1 · 16–70–14
24. 75′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 16–70–14
25. 75′⚽ GOAL · 74' Safa Baku 1–1 Kapaz
26. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Safa Baku win: 41% at kick-off, 16% now
27. 75′THE CALL SWINGS · 75' Draw is now our likeliest result at 70% (was Safa Baku win 86%)
28. 78′We said Safa Baku at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–75–11
29. 80′A goal for Kapaz on 80′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 1–11–88
30. 80′We said Safa Baku at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–11–88
31. 80′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–11–88
32. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Safa Baku 1–2 Kapaz
33. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Safa Baku win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
34. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Kapaz win is now our likeliest result at 88% (was Draw 77%)
35. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kapaz · On: A. Atakishiyev · Off: Benito
36. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Kapaz · On: A. Samadov · Off: R. Haciyev
37. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Safa Baku · On: I. Zulfugarli · Off: R. Huseynli
38. FTFULL TIME Safa Baku 1–2 Kapaz
39. FTSafa Baku 1–2 Kapaz · Safa Baku win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.