Sabah FA v Qarabag prediction · Premyer Liqa

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Sabah FADrawQarabag

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Sabah FA 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sabah FA just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sabah FA 39%, draw 24%, Qarabag 37%. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Sabah FA v QarabagBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Sabah FA win39%

Draw24%

Qarabag win37%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueBank Respublika Arena

RefereeR. Ahmedov

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sabah FA

Qarabag

5Days since last match8

Last match: 20 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 17 Oct · Premyer Liqa

3Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sabah fa winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

39% The market40%

Us39%

~~Market~~40%

We make Sabah FA a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sabah FA v Qarabag~~1.51 – 1.45

~~Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 31 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 17~~1 v 3

~~The market · Sabah FA win~~40% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sabah FA win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sabah FA win	39%	40%	−1
Draw	24%	26%	−2
Qarabag win	37%	34%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	56%	59%	−3
Both teams to score	58%	62%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	79%	79%	0
Over 3.5 goals	34%	39%	−5
Sabah FA or draw	63%	66%	−3
Sabah FA clean sheet	24%	–	–
Qarabag clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.2 8.0 5.5 2.7 1 8.2 10.9 8.0 3.9 2 5.9 8.3 6.0 2.9 3 3.0 4.2 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sabah FA down, Qarabag across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 898 Premyer Liqa matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premyer Liqa matches have gone over 2.5 in 47.9% of games this season, across 48 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.20 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sabah FA at home: 2.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Qarabag away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Sabah FA, 1.45 for Qarabag. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.20

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAB 2–1 QAR · QAR 0–1 SAB · QAR 2–2 SAB · QAR 3–3 SAB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premyer Liqa this season · since 31 Aug

SABAH FA

WWWWDW1–0 · 5–0 · 3–0 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 4–0

QARABAG

WWDWWD1–0 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Sabah FA	7	+17	19
2	Neftchi Baku	8	+13	17
3	Qarabag	7	+7	17
4	Zira	9	0	15
5	Kapaz	8	0	14
6	Turan	8	+2	14
7	Şamaxı FK	8	+3	13
8	Sumqayıt	8	−1	8
9	Qabala	9	−11	7
10	Imisli FK	8	−6	7
11	Safa Baku	9	−12	3
12	Araz	9	−12	2